???? 據(jù)2月18日Trade Arabia報(bào)道，2020年，新冠肺炎疫情導(dǎo)致石油需求減少900萬(wàn)至1000萬(wàn)桶/天，不過(guò)，預(yù)計(jì)今年石油需求將反彈500萬(wàn)至600萬(wàn)桶/天。有關(guān)報(bào)告指出，疫情還導(dǎo)致一些展望報(bào)告將長(zhǎng)期年度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)下調(diào)了至多0.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

????國(guó)際能源署(IEA)、國(guó)際能源論壇(IEF)和歐佩克主辦了第11屆IEA-IEF-Opec能源展望研討會(huì)，探討新冠肺炎疫情對(duì)全球能源市場(chǎng)的影響以及全球能源安全和市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定的前景。

????研討會(huì)由國(guó)際能源論壇主辦，回顧IEA和歐佩克的短期、中期和長(zhǎng)期展望，并在最新發(fā)布的國(guó)際能源論壇- RFF展望比較報(bào)告中進(jìn)行了分析。這份報(bào)告由國(guó)際能源論壇和未來(lái)資源(RFF)共同撰寫，發(fā)布在國(guó)際能源論壇網(wǎng)站上，強(qiáng)調(diào)了在經(jīng)歷了歷史上最大的需求沖擊后，能源前景的重新定位。

????國(guó)際能源論壇秘書長(zhǎng)約瑟夫·麥克莫尼格爾(Joseph McMonigle) 表示：“疫情對(duì)能源需求的影響在能源市場(chǎng)歷史上是空前的，研討會(huì)探討了政府政策和行業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)措施對(duì)于維護(hù)能源市場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的重要意義。”

????這次專題討論會(huì)是這三個(gè)組織于2010年3月在墨西哥坎昆舉行的第12屆國(guó)際能源論壇上制定的更廣泛的聯(lián)合工作方案的一部分。研討會(huì)以現(xiàn)場(chǎng)直播的形勢(shì)向公眾開放。

????IEA執(zhí)行主任法蒂赫·比羅爾表示:“對(duì)話與合作在引導(dǎo)全球能源體系走向一個(gè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的未來(lái)方面，變得越來(lái)越重要。豐富、價(jià)格合理、清潔達(dá)能源將被用來(lái)助力經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和人類發(fā)展。”

????歐佩克秘書長(zhǎng)穆罕默德·巴爾金多在研討會(huì)開幕詞中肯定了過(guò)去一年中，歐佩克和非歐佩克國(guó)家參與《合作宣言》（DoC）以幫助穩(wěn)定石油市場(chǎng)所作的重要貢獻(xiàn)，IEA和IEF支持市場(chǎng)再平衡所做的努力，以及20國(guó)集團(tuán)密切對(duì)話的重要性。他還強(qiáng)調(diào)，有必要繼續(xù)對(duì)石油行業(yè)進(jìn)行投資，以確保供應(yīng)穩(wěn)定，并以保持一種包容性的態(tài)度來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化、能源轉(zhuǎn)型和能源獲取的挑戰(zhàn)。他表示，這些投資對(duì)生產(chǎn)者和消費(fèi)者來(lái)說(shuō)都至關(guān)重要。

????這位歐佩克秘書長(zhǎng)在研討會(huì)上表示:“在這個(gè)瞬息萬(wàn)變的世界，我們尋求為實(shí)現(xiàn)更穩(wěn)定、更具有可預(yù)測(cè)性和更高透明度的能源市場(chǎng)作貢獻(xiàn)。我們將不斷提高我們的能力，以建設(shè)一個(gè)更美好的未來(lái)，一個(gè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的，符合生產(chǎn)者和消費(fèi)者利益的未來(lái)。”

????世界天然氣出口國(guó)論壇秘書長(zhǎng)森特尤林表示:“現(xiàn)在取消油氣行業(yè)的投資還為時(shí)過(guò)早，因?yàn)樵诳深A(yù)見的未來(lái)，它們?nèi)詫⑹侨蚰茉唇Y(jié)構(gòu)中的重要組成部分。”

????IEF-RFF展望比較報(bào)告的其他主要發(fā)現(xiàn)包括:

????*預(yù)計(jì)到2040年，即使各國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》氣候目標(biāo)，化石燃料將在一次能源結(jié)構(gòu)中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。

????*凈零排放戰(zhàn)略或?qū)o(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)。

????*盡管需求可能會(huì)從發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)移到發(fā)展中國(guó)家，但長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，全球石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將保持穩(wěn)定。

????*市場(chǎng)對(duì)未來(lái)油氣行業(yè)的重要性判斷存在不同的看法，碳捕獲、利用和儲(chǔ)存（CCUS）等新技術(shù)可能發(fā)揮更大的作用。

????*核電、水電、風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能將占電力行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的很大一部分，而煤炭發(fā)電份額預(yù)計(jì)將下降，天然氣作為過(guò)渡燃料面臨不確定的未來(lái)。

????* 人們?nèi)找孢h(yuǎn)大的氣候目標(biāo)將對(duì)占全球排放量四分之三的能源行業(yè)產(chǎn)生重大影響。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 Trade Arabia

????原文如下：

????Oil demand to bounce back this year, says report

????The Covid pandemic led to oil demand contracting by 9-10 million barrels per day in 2020, but it is expected to rebound by 5-6 million barrels per day this year, a major symposium heard.

????The pandemic has also led to a downward revision in long-term annual economic growth by as much as 0.8 percentage points in some outlooks, a high-level report noted.

????The International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) hosted the 11th IEA-IEF-Opec Symposium on Energy Outlooks to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global energy markets and the outlook for global energy security and market stability.

????Hosted by the IEF, the symposium reviewed the IEA’s and Opec’s short-, medium- and longterm outlooks, which are analysed in the newly released IEF-RFF Outlooks Comparison Report. Produced by the IEF and Resources For the Future (RFF), the report posted on the IEF website highlights a reset in energy outlooks after the biggest demand shock in history last year.

????“The pandemic’s impact on energy demand is unparalleled in the history of energy markets,” says IEF Secretary General Joseph McMonigle. “The symposium explored what government policies and industry responses are necessary to safeguard the long-term stability of energy markets.”

????The Symposium is part of a wider joint programme of work by the three organisations originating from the 12th International Energy Forum held in Cancún, Mexico in March 2010. The Symposium was live-streamed and open to the public.

????Dr Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, said: “Dialogue and cooperation will be increasingly vital to steer the global energy system towards a future that is fit for tomorrow’s generations, where energy is abundant, affordable, clean and is used to underpin growth and development.”

????In his opening remarks to the Symposium, Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Opec Secretary General, recognised the vital contributions of the Opec and non-Opec countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in helping to stabilise the oil market over the past year, and the importance of close dialogue with the G20, the IEA and IEF in supporting market rebalancing efforts. He also emphasised the need for continued investment in the oil industry to ensure stability of supply and to help maintain an inclusive approach to addressing climate change, the energy transition and energy access challenges. "These investments are essential for both producers and consumers," he said.

????"In our fast-changing and unpredictable world, we seek to contribute to greater stability, more predictability and enhanced transparency," the Opec Secretary General told the Symposium. "We constantly seek to improve our capacity to do so, for we believe this will help us build a better future, one which serves the interests of generations of producers and consumers."

????GECF Secretary General Sentyurin, said:“It is too early to write off hydrocarbons as they will remain the dominating source in the global energy mix for the foreseeable future.”

????Other key findings in the IEF-RFF Outlooks Comparison Report include:

????* Fossil fuels are expected to dominate the primary energy mix thru 2040, even in scenarios where countries meet the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.

????* The gap between current pathway scenarios and alternative scenarios is large and growing annually, signalling that the zero-carbon emissions scenario may not be achieved.

????* Demand for oil is expected to be stable over the long term globally, although demand will likely shift from developed to developing countries.

????* Differing outlooks on the expected importance of hydrocarbons suggest that new technologies such as carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) could have a bigger role to play.

????* Nuclear, hydro, wind and solar will account for a majority of growth in the electricity sector, while coal is expected to decline and natural gas faces an uncertain future as a transition fuel.

????* Growing climate ambitions in the lead up to COP26 will have significant implications for the energy sector, which accounts for three-quarters of global emissions.