???? 據(jù)3月3日Business Wire報(bào)道，全球石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將從2020年的46774.5億美元增長(zhǎng)到2021年的58701.3億美元，復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率為25.5%。

????增長(zhǎng)主要是由于石油公司重新安排了業(yè)務(wù)，并漸漸從新冠肺炎疫情的影響中恢復(fù)過(guò)來(lái)。此前，疫情導(dǎo)致了限制性的遏制措施實(shí)施，包括社交距離、遠(yuǎn)程工作和商業(yè)活動(dòng)等方面，從而給運(yùn)營(yíng)帶來(lái)了挑戰(zhàn)。預(yù)計(jì)到2025年，市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將達(dá)到74250.2億美元，復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率為6%。

????石油和天然氣由從事石油和天然氣及其衍生產(chǎn)品的勘探、開(kāi)采、鉆探和精煉的實(shí)體(組織、個(gè)體貿(mào)易商或合伙企業(yè))銷(xiāo)售。這個(gè)市場(chǎng)不包括石化產(chǎn)品。石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)分為石油和天然氣上游活動(dòng)和石油下游產(chǎn)品。

????亞太地區(qū)是全球最大的油氣市場(chǎng)，2020年占全球油氣市場(chǎng)的33%。北美是第二大地區(qū)，占全球油氣市場(chǎng)的19%。南美洲是全球石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)上最小的地區(qū)。

????石油和天然氣行業(yè)的大公司正在研究大數(shù)據(jù)分析和人工智能(AI)，以提高決策能力，從而提高利潤(rùn)。該行業(yè)的公司通過(guò)放置在鉆井平臺(tái)上的大量傳感器收集與煉油廠、管道和其他基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施相關(guān)的大量原始數(shù)據(jù)。通過(guò)使用大數(shù)據(jù)分析，可以探索出一些模式，能夠?qū)Σ槐匾淖兓驖撛诘娜毕葑龀隹焖俜磻?yīng)，從而節(jié)省成本。人工智能可以幫助更好地進(jìn)行鉆井和運(yùn)營(yíng)決策。

????埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)和殼牌(Shell)等公司一直在加大對(duì)人工智能技術(shù)的投資，以擁有集中的數(shù)據(jù)管理方法，并支持跨多個(gè)應(yīng)用程序的數(shù)據(jù)集成。

????油價(jià)波動(dòng)可能會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，因?yàn)橛蛢r(jià)的大幅下跌和上漲會(huì)對(duì)政府和消費(fèi)者支出產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。油價(jià)下跌對(duì)沙特阿拉伯、尼日利亞和阿聯(lián)酋等主要依賴原油出口收入的國(guó)家的政府支出產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響；石油價(jià)格的大幅度上漲導(dǎo)致了通貨膨脹加劇，印度等主要石油進(jìn)口國(guó)將會(huì)面臨經(jīng)常賬戶赤字和財(cái)政赤字。

????由于石油出口收入大幅下降，沙特政府預(yù)計(jì)將削減支出，從2019年的1.05萬(wàn)億里亞爾(2800億美元)削減到2020年的1.02萬(wàn)億里亞爾(2700億美元)，到2022年削減到9550億里亞爾(2550億美元)，從而影響市場(chǎng)。油價(jià)的高波動(dòng)性預(yù)計(jì)將對(duì)市場(chǎng)的未來(lái)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。

????從歷史上看，大多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的低利率對(duì)油氣行業(yè)產(chǎn)生了積極的影響。例如，2019年，歐洲央行(ecb)將銀行存款利率降至-0.5%，以鼓勵(lì)放貸。

????這為投資創(chuàng)造了廉價(jià)資金流，無(wú)論是在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家還是發(fā)展中國(guó)家。鼓勵(lì)發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)的借貸，抑制儲(chǔ)蓄，幫助推動(dòng)支出。石油和天然氣公司能夠借到更多的錢(qián)來(lái)進(jìn)行工藝改進(jìn)和擴(kuò)建項(xiàng)目，從而推動(dòng)了這一時(shí)期的市場(chǎng)。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 Business Wire

????原文如下：

????Global Oil and Gas Market Report 2021: COVID-19 Impact and Recovery - Forecast to 2025 & 2030

????The global oil and gas market is expected to grow from $4677.45 billion in 2020 to $5870.13 billion in 2021 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.5%.

????The growth is mainly due to the companies rearranging their operations and recovering from the COVID-19 impact, which had earlier led to restrictive containment measures involving social distancing, remote working, and the closure of commercial activities that resulted in operational challenges. The market is expected to reach $7425.02 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 6%.

????The oil and gas market consists of sales of oil and gas by entities (organizations, sole traders or partnerships) that undertake the exploration for, extraction, drilling, and refining, of oil and gas and some of its derivatives. This market does not include petrochemicals. The oil and gas market is segmented into oil & gas upstream activities and oil downstream products.

????Asia Pacific was the largest region in the global oil and gas market, accounting for 33% of the market in 2020. North America was the second largest region accounting for 19% of the global oil and gas market. South America was the smallest region in the global oil and gas market.

????Major companies in the oil and gas industry are looking into big data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance decisions making abilities and thus drive profits. The companies in this industry gather huge amounts of raw data relating to the working of refineries, pipelines and other infrastructure through a large number of sensors placed across the oil rig. Using big data analytics the companies can detect patterns which can allow them to quickly react to unwanted changes or potential defects, thus saving costs. AI allows the companies to take better drilling and operational decisions.

????Companies such as ExxonMobil and Shell have been increasingly investing in AI technology to have a centralized method of data management and support data integration across multiple applications. Other companies such as Sinopec, a Chinese chemical and petroleum corporation, has announced its decision to construct 10 intelligent centers to help in reducing operation costs by 20%.

????Oil price volatility is likely to have a negative impact on the market as significant decline and increase in oil prices negatively impacts the government and consumer spending. The decline in oil prices is having a negative impact on government spending in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and the UAE (United Arab Emirates) which are largely dependent on revenues generated through crude oil exports; whereas significant increase in oil prices had resulted in rising inflation, current account deficit and fiscal deficit in countries such as India and China, which predominantly import oil.

????For instance, the Saudi government is expected to cut down its spending from 1.05 trillion riyals ($280 billion) in 2019 to 1.02 trillion riyals ($270 billion) in 2020, to 955 billion riyals ($255 billion) by 2022, due to significant decline in revenues generated from oil exports, thereby affecting the market. This high volatility in oil prices is expected to negatively impact the market going forward.

????Low interest rates in most developed countries positively impacted the oil and gas industry during the historic period. For instance, in 2019, the European Central Bank decreased interest rates to -0.5% on deposits from banks to encourage lending.

????This created a flow of cheap money for investment, both in developed and developing economies. It also encouraged borrowing and discouraged saving in advanced markets, helping to drive spending. Oil and gas companies were able to borrow more money for process improvements and expansion projects, thus driving the market during this period.