???? 據(jù)3月3日Oil Now報道，歐佩克秘書長和專家們表示，由于去年的不確定性有所緩解，該組織認為石油市場前景總體上是積極的，但疫情引發(fā)的下行風(fēng)險仍在持續(xù)。

????歐佩克主席穆罕默德·巴爾金多(Mohammad Barkindo)說表示：“與一年前相比，我們已經(jīng)取得了長足的進步，。GDP和石油需求數(shù)據(jù)因疫情引發(fā)的沖擊而出現(xiàn)赤字的日子似乎已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了。”

????周四，歐佩克+部長們將舉行一次全體會議。市場普遍預(yù)期，隨著歐佩克領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沙特阿拉伯結(jié)束其自愿額外減產(chǎn)100萬桶/天的決定，他們將緩解有史以來最嚴(yán)重的減產(chǎn)，增產(chǎn)幅度約為150萬桶/天。

????然而，路透社看到JTC的一份文件顯示，市場應(yīng)該保持謹(jǐn)慎的樂觀情緒，因為現(xiàn)貨市場和宏觀情緒存在潛在不確定性，包括疫情突變的風(fēng)險。最近油價的上漲可能更多是由金融參與者引起的，而不是石油現(xiàn)貨市場基本面的改善。

????巴爾金多表示，歐佩克預(yù)計2021年石油需求將增長580萬桶/天，至約9600萬桶/天。相比之下，2019年的日產(chǎn)量約為1億桶，而2020年由于疫情的影響，需求大幅下降。令人鼓舞的全球經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和亞洲的彈性需求是上行因素，而疫情的下行風(fēng)險意味是市場仍保持謹(jǐn)慎樂觀情緒的理由。

????他補充說:“許多國家在新冠肺炎疫苗接種方面繼續(xù)取得進展，但目前的速度表明，許多發(fā)展中國家存在被落后風(fēng)險。”

????王佳晶 摘譯自 Oil Now

????原文如下：

????OPEC sees positive oil market outlook

????OPEC sees a generally positive oil market outlook with last year’s uncertainty easing, but downside risks caused by the pandemic persist, the group’s secretary general and its experts said on Tuesday.

????“We have come a long way from a year ago,” OPEC chief Mohammad Barkindo said. “The days of GDP and oil demand figures being in the red because of the pandemic-induced shock appear to be behind us.”

????Barkindo was speaking before Tuesday’s meeting of the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), which reviews the oil market for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, a group know as OPEC+.

????OPEC+ ministers hold a full meeting on Thursday.

????The market widely expects them to ease their production cuts, which were the deepest ever, by around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), with OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, ending its voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd.

????However, a JTC document, which was seen by Reuters, called “for cautious optimism,” citing “the underlying uncertainties in the physical markets and macro sentiment, including risks from COVID-19 mutations that are still on the rise”.

????It also said it believed a recent oil price rally might have been caused more by financial players rather than improvements in physical oil market fundamentals.

????Barkindo said OPEC expected oil demand in 2021 to grow by 5.8 million bpd to about 96 million bpd. That compares with about 100 million bpd in 2019, before demand plummeted in 2020 due to the pandemic.

????“The encouraging global economic developments and resilient demand in Asia are upside factors,” he said, although he noted that the downside risks of the continuing pandemic meant there was cause to only be cautiously optimistic.

????“Progress on COVID-19 vaccinations continues in many countries, but the current pace shows that many developing countries risk being left behind,” he added.