???? 據(jù)全球油氣新聞3月22日消息，盡管歐洲疫苗計(jì)劃的問題和原油購(gòu)買放緩導(dǎo)致上周四期貨價(jià)格下跌超過7%，但來(lái)自世界各地的數(shù)據(jù)顯示需求正在穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇，盡管是斷斷續(xù)續(xù)的。
????一年前，由于疫情的肆虐把數(shù)十億人困在家中，閑置的噴氣客機(jī)比翼地停在機(jī)場(chǎng)的滑行道上。如今，美國(guó)的機(jī)場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)出自疫情開始以來(lái)最繁忙的景象，空乘人員正紛紛從休假中返回。
????空乘行業(yè)是受疫情打擊最嚴(yán)重的行業(yè)之一，這些向正常邁進(jìn)的步驟只是世界開始再次移動(dòng)的眾多跡象之一。汽油、柴油和航空燃料的消耗量達(dá)到一年多來(lái)的最高水平。
????市場(chǎng)的不安可能仍是合理的。意大利的新一輪封鎖表明，如果疫情再次加速傳播，任何進(jìn)展都可能很快回到原點(diǎn)。然而，整個(gè)夏季(傳統(tǒng)上是石油需求的高峰期)，情況可能會(huì)繼續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)。
????132個(gè)國(guó)家接種了超過4.1億劑疫苗。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)剛剛簽署了一項(xiàng)1.9萬(wàn)億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)救助計(jì)劃，使之成為法律，促使分析人士大幅提高了他們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期。
????寶盛集團(tuán)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和新一代研究負(fù)責(zé)人諾伯特?魯克爾（Norbert Ruecker）表示： “由于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，刺激措施，疫苗接種的進(jìn)展以及放緩的疫情措施，西方世界的石油需求似乎將反彈。歐洲的疫苗接種問題很難改變經(jīng)濟(jì)前景。”
????根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署(IEA)的數(shù)據(jù)，在去年3月和4月疫情最嚴(yán)重的封鎖期間，全球石油需求曾大幅下降30%，如今已回到2019年疫情前最高水平(略高于1億桶/天)的95%左右。再加上歐佩克和歐佩克+的大幅減產(chǎn)，今年以來(lái)油價(jià)已回升逾20%，即便是在周四暴跌之后。
????Flightradar24的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，商業(yè)航班回到了疫情前相當(dāng)水平的三分之二，這是自一年前航空交通大幅下滑以來(lái)最活躍的一次。在美國(guó)，機(jī)場(chǎng)的客流量有所增加，截至周四，已經(jīng)連續(xù)8天每天客流量超過100萬(wàn)人次，這是自疫情開始以來(lái)從未發(fā)生過的情況。
????航運(yùn)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，從2月到3月，汽油和柴油從美國(guó)墨西哥灣沿岸的煉油廠到墨西哥港口的流量加速增長(zhǎng)，這再次表明人們對(duì)旅行再次感到樂觀，這是因?yàn)槔绹?guó)家的度假勝地準(zhǔn)備在春假期間吸引大量游客。
????FGE亞洲石油主管Sri Paravaikkarasu表示，2021年亞洲航空燃油需求應(yīng)該會(huì)逐漸改善，主要是受國(guó)內(nèi)航班的推動(dòng)。
????但市場(chǎng)的全面復(fù)蘇還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。歐洲的航空流量已經(jīng)高于預(yù)期，但仍在疫情爆發(fā)前水平的三分之一左右徘徊。
????Paravaikkarasu表示:“即使疫苗迅速大規(guī)模接種，邊境完全開放也需要幾個(gè)月的時(shí)間。鑒于采取謹(jǐn)慎的方式恢復(fù)國(guó)際航班，到2023年，亞洲的航油需求應(yīng)該僅會(huì)恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平。”
????裘寅 編譯自 全球油氣新聞
????原文如下：
????Despite some turbulence, global oil demand is on the route to recovery
????Even as problems with Europe’s vaccine program and a slowdown?of crude buying sent futures down more than 7% on Thursday, data from around the world showed a steady, albeit patchy, recovery in demand.
????A year ago, idled jetliners were parked wing-tip to wing-tip on airport taxiways as a raging virus kept billions of people at home. Today, U.S. airports are the busiest since the pandemic started and flight attendants are returning from furlough.
????These steps back toward normality from one of the industries hit hardest by Covid-19 is just one of many signs that the world is starting to move again. Consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are at the highest in more than a year.
????The market’s jitters may still be justified. A renewed lockdown in Italy showed that any gains can be quickly lost if the spread of the virus accelerates again. Yet things are likely to keep improving through the summer, traditionally the peak period for oil demand.
????More than 410 million vaccine doses have been administered across 132 countries. U.S. President Joe Biden just signed a $1.9 trillion economic rescue package into law, prompting analysts to significantly upgrade their growth forecasts.
????“Western world oil demand looks set to bounce on the back of the economic recovery, stimulus, vaccination progress, and easing pandemic measures,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics and next-generation research at Julius Baer. “Europe’s vaccination hiccups hardly change the economic outlook.”
????Global oil demand, which plunged as much as 30% during the worst of the pandemic lockdowns last March and April, is now back at about 95% of the pre-Covid high of just over 100 million barrels a day hit in 2019, according to the International Energy Agency. Together with aggressive output cuts from the OPEC+ alliance of oil exporters, that’s helped a revival in prices of more than 20% this year -- even after Thursday’s slump.
????Commercial flights are back at two-thirds of comparable pre-Covid levels, the most activity since air traffic slumped a year ago, according to data from Flightradar24. In the U.S., foot traffic in airports has picked up, with a run of over 1 million daily passengers for eight straight days ending on Thursday -- something that hasn’t happened since the pandemic started.
????In another indication of renewed optimism about travel, the flow of gasoline and diesel from refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast to Mexican ports accelerated from February into March as the Latin American country’s resorts prepared for an influx of tourists over spring break, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg.
????Asian jet fuel demand should see a gradual improvement over the course of 2021, largely driven by domestic flights, said Sri Paravaikkarasu, Asia head of oil at FGE.
????But it’s a long road to full recovery for the market. Europe’s air traffic has been higher than forecast, but is still languishing at about a third of pre-pandemic levels。
????“Even with the rapid mass distribution of the vaccine, it will require months for borders to fully open,” Paravaikkarasu said. “Given the cautious approach to reinstating international flights, Asia’s jet fuel demand should only recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.”?
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