???? 據油價網4月6日消息：歐佩克+上周出人意料地決定在7月前將石油日產量累計減少200萬桶，這是基于對第二季度石油需求強勁復蘇的預期。然而，最近的需求擔憂表明，該聯盟的供應管理政策可能再次更多地停留在客戶評估領域。

????路透社專欄作家Clyde Russell寫道，未來三個月集體減產幅度將超過100萬桶，加上沙特阿拉伯逐漸取消其額外的100萬桶/天減產，表明歐佩克+預期需求將強勁反彈并證明供應增加是合理的。

????然而，在疫苗接種計劃滯后的主要經濟體中，新冠病毒卷土重來的不可預測性可能會再次破壞歐佩克+預測和供應管理政策。

????上周，歐佩克+決定在5月和6月分別將逐步增加35萬桶/天的石油產量，7月將增加40萬桶/天以上。另外，沙特阿拉伯還將在未來幾個月內逐步放寬100萬桶/天的額外單邊減產措施，從5月和6月每月增產25萬桶開始。

????盡管對歐佩克+周四會議結果的最初下意識反應是大量拋售石油，因為額外的供應即將到來，但當天價格強勁，漲幅超過3%，由于市場意識到歐佩克+決定向市場投放更多原油，預計石油需求將會增加。

????Russell表示，由于汽油需求強勁，亞洲對原油的需求看似強勁，但柴油和航空燃料需求依然疲弱。

????多數分析師仍然認為，隨著夏季需求的增強，市場將能夠消化歐佩克+的新增原油。例如，高盛仍看好石油，并預計強勁的需求將要求歐佩克+在第三季度向市場再投放200萬桶/天的原油供應，而此前歐佩克和沙特阿拉伯決定在5月至7月期間恢復約200萬桶/天的供應。

????馮娟 摘譯自 油價網

????原文如下：

????OPEC Is Betting Big On Robust Oil Demand Recovery

????Last week’s surprise decision from OPEC+ to ease the production cuts by a cumulative 2 million barrels per day (bpd) by July relies on expectations of robust oil demand recovery in the second quarter. Yet, recent demand concerns suggest the alliance’s supply management policies could once again be more in the realm of guestimates.

????The easing of the collective cuts by over 1 million bpd over the next three months, plus Saudi Arabia reversing gradually its extra 1 million bpd cut signal that OPEC+ expects demand to rebound strongly and justify supply increases, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell writes.

????However, the unpredictability of the COVID resurgence in major economies lagging behind in vaccination programs could spoil the OPEC+ forecasts and supply management policies once again.

????Last week, OPEC+ decided to gradually increase collective oil production by 350,000 bpd in each of May and June and by more than 400,000 bpd in July. Additionally, Saudi Arabia will also gradually ease its extra unilateral cut of 1 million bpd over the course of the next few months, beginning with monthly production increases of 250,000 bpd in each of May and June.

????Although the initial knee-jerk reaction to the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday was heavy selling in oil because additional supply is coming, prices finished strong that day with more than 3-percent gains as the market realized that OPEC+ expects strengthening of oil demand with its decision to put more crude on the market.

????Asia’s demand for crude looks strong as gasoline demand looks robust, but demand for diesel and jet fuel is still soft, according to Reuters’ Russell.

????Most analysts continue to believe that the market will be able to absorb the new barrels from OPEC+ with strengthening demand going into the summer months. Goldman Sachs, for example, is still bullish on oil and anticipates strong demand that would require OPEC+ putting another 2 million bpd on the market in the third quarter, after the around 2 million bpd that the alliance and Saudi Arabia decided to return between May and July.

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