據(jù)世界石油 4月16日休斯敦報道，先鋒自然資源公司表示，若美國頁巖油生產商恢復過去10年的高速產量增長，他們將面臨與歐佩克及其盟國的另一場油價戰(zhàn)爭。

　　先鋒自然資源首席執(zhí)行官斯科特·謝菲爾德在彭博新能源財經(BloombergNEF)年度峰會上表示，導致2020年石油市場最初崩潰的是頁巖油，而非疫情的流行。他指出，卡特爾企業(yè)聯(lián)盟對美國生產商成功從歐佩克手中奪取市場份額感到沮喪，因此致使油價下跌。

　　謝菲爾德還稱:“歐佩克和俄羅斯對我們增長過快感到不滿。如果我們再次開始過度增長，就會爆發(fā)另一場價格戰(zhàn)。”

　　為了應對去年的石油危機，美國生產商減少了資本支出、鉆井和就業(yè)，并與競爭對手合并以支撐資產負債表。其結果是損失了約200萬桶/天的產量，比整個墨西哥灣的產量還要多。但是由于經濟復蘇和沙特阿拉伯單方面減產，今年油價回升，對美國頁巖油增產的誘惑越來越大。

　　美國能源情報署(EIA)預計，2022年美國石油日產量平均為1190萬桶，較本季度平均產量增加約100萬桶，增幅為9%。謝菲爾德“完全反對”EIA的預測，他表示，生產商現(xiàn)在知道了其中的利害關系，并將堅持資本紀律。

　　他指出:“如果明年我們的產量再增加100萬桶/天，在我看來，到2023年，我們就會再次陷入價格戰(zhàn)。”

　　到目前為止，還沒有太多證據(jù)表明生產商顯著提高了該領域的生產活動，但在未來幾周，一旦公司開始公布第一季度業(yè)績，投資者就會看到更清晰的畫面。周三，西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)價格約為每桶62.80美元，約為一年前的三倍。

　　謝菲爾德預計，美國整體產量將以每年2% - 3%的速度增長，其中大部分增長來自西德克薩斯和新墨西哥州的二疊紀盆地，先鋒自然資源是那里最大的生產商之一。他表示，所有其他地區(qū)頁巖油田的產量都將下降。

　　注：Cartel:卡特爾，企業(yè)聯(lián)盟（通過統(tǒng)一價格、防止競爭來增加共同利潤）

　　裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　Higher U.S. shale output could spark an OPEC price war, warns Pioneer CEO

　　U.S. shale producers risk another oil-price war with OPEC and its allies if they resume the breakneck production growth of the last decade, according to Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

　　Shale, and not the pandemic, was responsible for the initial oil-market crash of 2020, CEO Scott Sheffield said at BloombergNEF’s annual summit. The cartel, frustrated at U.S. producers’ success in taking market share from OPEC, allowed prices to tumble, he said.

　　“OPEC and Russia were upset that we grew too much,” said Sheffield. “If we ever start growing again too much, we’re going to have another price war.”

　　U.S. producers responded to last year’s oil collapse by reducing capital spending, drilling and jobs as well as merging with rivals to shore up balance sheets. The result has been lost production of about 2 million barrels a day, or more than output from the entire Gulf of Mexico. But as prices rebound this year, due to both the economic recovery and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cuts, temptation is growing for U.S. shale to ramp up output.

　　The Energy Information Administration sees U.S. oil production averaging 11.9 million barrels a day in 2022, up about 1 million barrels, or 9%, from the average this quarter. Sheffield is “totally against” the EIA’s forecast, saying that producers now know the stakes and will stick to their mantra of capital discipline.

　　“If we grow another million barrels a day next year, we’re going to have another price war in my opinion going into ‘23,” he said.

　　So far there hasn’t been much evidence of producers significantly boosting activity in the field, but investors will get a clearer picture once companies begin reporting first-quarter earnings in the coming weeks. West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded at about $62.80 a barrel on Wednesday, about triple from a year ago.

　　Sheffield sees overall U.S. production growing at a annual rate of 2% to 3%, with most of the increases coming from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, where Pioneer is one of the largest producers. All other shale fields will decline, he said.

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