據今日油價網站5月3日消息 彭博社援引俄羅斯能源部的數據報道，由于歐佩克+放松減產，俄羅斯上月日產量為1046萬桶，較3月份增長1.9%。

　　俄羅斯的生產配額在4月份之前已經增加了兩次，在2月和3月增加了6.5萬桶/日。隨后，4月份增產13萬桶/日。據俄羅斯副總理Alexander Novak透露，從本月到7月，俄羅斯將進一步增加11.4萬桶的日產量。

　　歐佩克+總共將在5-7月期間增加200萬桶/日的石油產量，表明其對改善需求的信心。

　　塔斯社援引俄羅斯能源部的話報道稱，減產是今年前四個月俄羅斯石油出口下降的原因之一。四個月期間，海外石油出貨量下降了17.2%，僅4月份就下降了16.4%。

　　由于參與了歐佩克+協議，俄羅斯石油產量10年來首次從去年的紀錄高位下滑。現在，根據能源部的說法，產量可能永遠不會恢復到疫情前的水平。該部表示，這將從目前的水平得到改善，到2029年達到1110萬桶/日，但隨后開始下降，到2035年達到940萬桶/日。

　　由于這些預測，俄羅斯需要在可能的時候將其石油財富貨幣化，或者正如俄羅斯議會能源委員會負責人今年早些時候所說：“所有能夠生產的東西都應該在仍有銷售需求的時候生產。”

　　這是能源部制定的基本情況或最有可能的情況。在最好的情況下，俄羅斯石油部預計，到2030年，俄羅斯石油產量將達到1280萬桶/日的峰值，然后才開始下降。在任何一種情況下，產量的穩步下降都迫在眉睫。

　　王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Russia Boosted Oil Production In April

　　Russia produced 10.46 million bpd last month, up by 1.9 percent on March as OPEC+ relaxed its production cuts, Bloomberg reports, citing data from Russia's Energy Ministry.

　　Russia's production quota had been upped twice before April, by 65,000 bpd in February and March. It was then relaxed by 130,000 bpd for April. From this month to July, Russia will further increase its output by 114,000 bpd, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

　　OPEC+ in total will increase its oil production by 2 million barrels daily between May and July, signaling its belief in improving demand.

　　The production cuts were among the factors that drove Russia's oil exports lower in the first four months of the year, the Energy Ministry said, as quoted by TASS. Shipments of oil abroad declined by 17.2 percent over the four-month period and by 16.4 percent in April alone.

　　Russia's oil production fell from record highs last year for the first time in a decade due to its participation in the OPEC+ pact. Now, according to the Energy Ministry, output may never recover to pre-pandemic levels. It will improve from current levels, the ministry said, reaching 11.1 million bpd by 2029 but then starting to decline, reaching 9.4 million bpd by 2035.

　　Because of these projections, Russia needs to monetize its oil wealth while it can, or, as the head of the energy committee at the Russian parliament put it earlier this year, "Everything that can be produced should be produced while there is still demand to sell it."

　　This is the base-case or most likely scenario developed by the Energy Ministry. In its best-case scenario, the ministry sees Russia's oil production hit a peak of 12.8 million bpd by 2030 and only then begin to decline. In either scenario, a steady decline in output is imminent.

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