據(jù)世界石油4月27日消息，盡管印度感染病例激增，但隨著全球需求從疫情中復(fù)蘇，歐佩克及其盟國建議繼續(xù)實(shí)施緩慢恢復(fù)石油生產(chǎn)的計(jì)劃。

　　與會(huì)代表稱，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的委員會(huì)同意，該聯(lián)盟可以跳過原定于周三舉行的全面部長級會(huì)議，繼續(xù)推進(jìn)增加石油供應(yīng)的計(jì)劃。這個(gè)由23個(gè)國家組成的聯(lián)盟計(jì)劃在未來3個(gè)月重啟約200萬桶的日產(chǎn)量。

　　歐佩克+技術(shù)專家小組周一預(yù)測，盡管印度和巴西的疫情再次爆發(fā)有可能令復(fù)蘇面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，今年全球石油消費(fèi)量仍將強(qiáng)勁反彈600萬桶/日。因此，去年需求暴跌時(shí)積累的石油庫存過剩將在本季度末幾乎消失。

　　歐佩克秘書長穆罕默德·巴爾金多在推特發(fā)文稱：“得知我們的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)幫助扭轉(zhuǎn)了局勢，我們對此感到欣慰。但與此同時(shí)，新冠疫情的持續(xù)提醒我們，我們不能偏離過去一年采取的謹(jǐn)慎、堅(jiān)定的做法。”

　　歐佩克+聯(lián)盟削減產(chǎn)量，以幫助全球石油業(yè)從去年前所未有的價(jià)格暴跌中復(fù)蘇。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的恢復(fù)，石油生產(chǎn)商現(xiàn)在正小心翼翼地重新啟動(dòng)這些供應(yīng)，5月份的日產(chǎn)量增加了約60萬桶。該組織目前每天閑置約800萬桶原油，約占全球供應(yīng)量的8%。

　　聯(lián)合部長級監(jiān)督委員會(huì)周二舉行了正式會(huì)議，該提議正在通過歐佩克+的外交程序，以便獲得每個(gè)成員國的批準(zhǔn)，這一過程可能需要幾小時(shí)。

　　俄羅斯副總理亞歷山大·諾瓦克周二表示，石油市場情緒樂觀。盡管如此，他在俄羅斯國家電視臺Rossiya 24仍表示，歐佩克+必須繼續(xù)監(jiān)測包括亞洲在內(nèi)的許多地區(qū)的新冠疫情。倫敦原油價(jià)格上漲0.5%，接近每桶66美元。

　　歐佩克+的技術(shù)專家預(yù)計(jì)，今今年全球平均石油庫存將以每天120萬桶的速度下降。這比他們一個(gè)月前預(yù)測的每天減少80萬桶的速度要快。因此，到本季度末，發(fā)達(dá)國家的庫存盈余將減少到800萬桶。

　　BP公司首席執(zhí)行官伯納德·魯尼周二在接受彭博電視臺采訪時(shí)表示:“我們看到了令人難以置信的強(qiáng)勁需求。美國的需求幾乎回到了疫情前水平，疫苗現(xiàn)在將在歐洲發(fā)揮作用。”

　　在世界第三大石油進(jìn)口國印度，病毒感染正以創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的速度增長。據(jù)咨詢公司OilX稱，此次疫情可能使該國本月的燃油需求每日減少多達(dá)35萬桶。但一名不愿透露姓名的歐佩克+高級代表稱，就目前而言，美國的復(fù)蘇彌補(bǔ)了印度較低的需求。

　　該代表稱，若局勢惡化，聯(lián)盟可以迅速采取行動(dòng)，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在大約每月定期召開會(huì)議。代表們表示，下一次會(huì)議定于6月1日舉行。

　　加拿大皇家銀行資本市場公司首席大宗商品策略師Helima Croft表示:“印度市場目前“烏云密布”。但即使印度的需求進(jìn)一步惡化，他們也有迅速采取行動(dòng)的機(jī)制。”

　　裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC+ confirms plan to gently hike supply as demand recovers

　　OPEC and its allies recommended proceeding with plans to gently revive oil production as global demand recovers from the pandemic, despite surging infections in India.

　　A committee led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed the coalition can skip a full-scale ministerial meeting originally scheduled for Wednesday, and press on with its roadmap for increasing supply, delegates said. The 23-nation alliance intends to restart about 2 million barrels of daily output over the next three months.

　　World oil consumption will rebound by a vigorous 6 million barrels a day this year, though the recovery remains at risk from virus outbreaks in India and Brazil, a panel of OPEC+ technical experts forecast on Monday. As a result, the glut of oil inventories that amassed when demand collapsed last year will be almost gone by the end of this quarter.

　　“We can take comfort in knowing that our leadership has helped turn the tide,” Mohammad Barkindo, secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said on Twitter. “But at the same time, the persistence of Covid-19 reminds us that this is no time to stray from the cautious and steadfast approach we have taken over the past year.”

　　The OPEC+ alliance slashed output to help revive the global oil industry from an unprecedented price rout last year when the pandemic crushed fuel demand. The producers are now carefully restarting those supplies as economic activity resumes, beginning with an increase of about 600,000 barrels a day in May. The group is currently idling about 8 million barrels a day, or roughly 8% of world supplies.

　　The proposal from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which formally met on Tuesday, was going through the OPEC+ diplomatic process so it could be rubber stamped by every member nation, a process that was likely to take a few hours.

　　Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday that there’s optimism in the oil market. Nevertheless, OPEC+ must keep monitoring the coronavirus situation across many regions, including Asia, he said on the state-run Rossiya 24 television network. Crude rose 0.5% to near $66 a barrel in London.

　　Global oil inventories will decline at a rate of 1.2 million barrels a day on average this year, technical experts at OPEC+ estimate. It’s a faster pace than the drawdown of 800,000 a day they projected a month ago. As a result, the stockpile surplus in developed nations will be whittled down to 8 million barrels by the end of the quarter.

　　“You’re seeing incredibly strong demand,” BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday. The U.S. is almost back there and “vaccines are going to kick in now in Europe.”

　　Virus infections in India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer, are increasing at a record pace. The outbreak could crimp the country’s fuel demand this month by as much as 350,000 barrels a day, according to consultant OilX. But for the time being, the recovery in the U.S. is eclipsing lower demand in India, said one senior OPEC+ delegate who asked not to be identified.

　　The coalition can move quickly if the situation deteriorates since it now meets regularly roughly every month, the delegate said. The next gathering is scheduled for June 1, delegates said.

　　“The dark cloud is India,” said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC. But “even if Indian demand were to deteriorate further, they have a mechanism to act pretty quickly.”

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