據今日油價網站5月7日消息 雷斯塔能源的一項分析顯示，美國頁巖氣行業將在2021年實現一個重要的里程碑：如果WTI期貨繼續強勁，今年的平均價格為每桶60美元，天然氣和液化天然氣價格保持穩定，生產商可以預期，在考慮對沖之前，碳氫化合物收入將達到創紀錄的1950億美元，此前1910億美元的記錄是在2019年。

　　估計包括二疊紀、Eagle Ford、Bakken、Niobrara和Anadarko地區所有致密油水平井的油氣銷售。僅二疊紀盆地今年就將從致密油活動中獲得1100億美元的預對沖油氣銷售額，而2019年為910億美元。

　　然而，企業經營活動產生的現金流在2022年之前可能不會達到創紀錄的水平，這是因為價值超過100億美元的收入將被2021年的重大對沖損失所吸收。

　　盡管在每桶60美元的WTI環境下，致密油生產商的碳氫化合物銷售、經營活動產生的現金和息稅折舊攤銷前利潤均創下歷史新高，但由于生產商仍致力于維持經營紀律，資本支出并未呈指數級增長。

　　雷斯塔能源頁巖研究主管Artem Abramov表示：“從上游現金流的角度來看，我們看到二疊紀的再投資率下降到57%，其他石油地區今年下降到46%。 由于償債和對沖損失，今年企業再投資率一般預計在60%-70%之間。”

　　王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. Shale Pre-Hedge Revenues Set To Hit All-Time High In 2021

　　The US shale industry is set to achieve a significant milestone in 2021: If WTI futures continue their strong run and average at $60 per barrel this year and natural gas and NGL prices remain steady, producers can expect a record-high hydrocarbon revenue of $195 billion before factoring in hedges, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. The previous record of $191 billion was set in 2019.

　　The estimate includes hydrocarbon sales from all tight oil horizontal wells in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Niobrara and Anadarko regions. The Permian Basin alone is set to generate a pre-hedge $110 billion in hydrocarbon sales from tight oil activity this year, compared to $91 billion in 2019.

　　However, corporate cash flows from operations may not reach a record before 2022. This is because more than $10 billion worth of revenue is going to be absorbed by significant hedging losses in 2021.

　　While hydrocarbon sales, cash from operations and EBITDA for tight oil producers are all testing new record highs in the $60 per barrel WTI environment, capital expenditure is not growing exponentially as producers remain committed to maintaining operational discipline.

　　“From the upstream cash flow perspective, we see reinvestment rates falling to 57% in the Permian and to 46% in other oil regions this year. Corporate reinvestment rates are generally expected to be in the 60-70% range this year due to debt servicing and hedging losses,“ says Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy.

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