據5月19日Trade Arabia報道，國際能源署(IEA)在一份新報告中表示，引導全球到2050年實現凈零排放的400多個里程碑舉措，是從今天起，不再投資新的化石燃料供應項目，不再對新建的燃煤電廠作出最終投資決定。
具有里程碑意義的特別報告《2050年凈零排放:全球能源部門路線圖》補充道，到2035年，新的內燃機乘用車將停止銷售，到2040年，全球電力部門將達到凈零排放。
在短期內，該報告描述了一種凈零發展路徑，要求立即大規模部署所有可用的清潔和高效能源技術，并在全球范圍內大力推動加速創新。該方案要求，到2030年，太陽能光伏發電的年增加量達到630千兆瓦，風力發電的年增加量達到390千兆瓦。這是2020年創紀錄水平的四倍。對于太陽能光伏來說，這相當于大約每天安裝一個世界上最大的太陽能園區。在全球范圍內大力提高能源效率也是這些努力的重要組成部分，以使2030年全球能源效率平均每年提高4%，大約是過去20年平均水平的三倍。
到2030年，全球大部分二氧化碳排放量的減少來自于目前可用的技術。但到2050年，幾乎一半的減排將來自目前僅處于示范或模型階段的技術。 這就要求各國政府迅速增加研發支出，并調整其優先次序，以及示范和部署清潔能源技術，并將其置于能源和氣候的核心政策。在先進電池、氫電解槽和直接空氣捕獲和儲存方面的進展對碳排放尤其具有影響力。
國際能源署表示，有一條可行的道路，可以在2050年建立一個凈零排放的全球能源部門，但這條道路非常艱難，需要對全球能源的生產、運輸和使用方式進行前所未有的變革。
迄今各國政府作出的氣候承諾，即使完全實現了，也遠遠低于到2050年將全球能源相關二氧化碳排放量降至零，并使全球氣溫上升幅度限制在1.5攝氏度的要求。
這份世界上第一個關于如何在2050年過渡到能源凈零體系的全面研究，同時確保了穩定和負擔得起的能源供應，可以提供大范圍的能源供應，并促進強勁的經濟增長。該研究提出了一個具有成本效益和經濟效益的途徑，從而形成一個以太陽能和風能等可再生能源、而不是化石燃料為主導的清潔、動態和彈性的能源經濟。該研究還考察了關鍵的不確定性因素，如生物能源、碳捕獲和行為變化在實現凈零排放方面的作用。
IEA執行主任法蒂赫·比羅爾表示：“我們的路線圖顯示了今天需要優先采取的行動，以確保到2050年實現凈零排放的機會，雖然這個機會很小，但仍然可以實現。這一關鍵而艱巨的目標所要求的我們需要努力的規模和速度，是我們應對氣候變化和將全球變暖控制在1.5攝氏度以內的最佳機會，而這可能成為人類有史以來面臨的最大挑戰。這條通往更光明未來的道路將帶來清潔能源投資的歷史性激增，將創造數百萬的新就業機會，并促進全球經濟增長。讓世界走上這條道路，需要各國政府采取強有力和可信的政策行動，并以更大程度的國際合作為基礎。”
王佳晶 摘譯自 Trade Arabia
原文如下：
Stop new coal, oil & gas investments to attain net zero: IEA
The more than 400 milestones to guide the global journey to net zero by 2050 include, from today, no investment in new fossil fuel supply projects, and no further final investment decisions for new unabated coal plants, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a new report.
By 2035, there are no sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars, and by 2040, the global electricity sector has already reached net-zero emissions, added the landmark special report “Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”.
In the near term, the report describes a net zero pathway that requires the immediate and massive deployment of all available clean and efficient energy technologies, combined with a major global push to accelerate innovation. The pathway calls for annual additions of solar PV to reach 630 gigawatts by 2030, and those of wind power to reach 390 gigawatts.
Together, this is four times the record level set in 2020. For solar PV, it is equivalent to installing the world’s current largest solar park roughly every day. A major worldwide push to increase energy efficiency is also an essential part of these efforts, resulting in the global rate of energy efficiency improvements averaging 4% a year through 2030 – about three times the average over the last two decades.
Most of the global reductions in CO2 emissions between now and 2030 in the net zero pathway come from technologies readily available today. But in 2050, almost half the reductions come from technologies that are currently only at the demonstration or prototype phase.
This demands that governments quickly increase and reprioritise their spending on research and development – as well as on demonstrating and deploying clean energy technologies – putting them at the core of energy and climate policy. Progress in the areas of advanced batteries, electrolysers for hydrogen, and direct air capture and storage can be particularly impactful.
The world has a viable pathway to building a global energy sector with net-zero emissions in 2050, but it is narrow and requires an unprecedented transformation of how energy is produced, transported and used globally, the IEA said.
Climate pledges by governments to date – even if fully achieved – would fall well short of what is required to bring global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net zero by 2050 and give the world an even chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5C, according to the new report.
The report is the world’s first comprehensive study of how to transition to a net zero energy system by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access, and enabling robust economic growth. It sets out a cost-effective and economically productive pathway, resulting in a clean, dynamic and resilient energy economy dominated by renewables like solar and wind instead of fossil fuels. The report also examines key uncertainties, such as the roles of bioenergy, carbon capture and behavioural changes in reaching net zero.
“Our Roadmap shows the priority actions that are needed today to ensure the opportunity of net-zero emissions by 2050 – narrow but still achievable – is not lost. The scale and speed of the efforts demanded by this critical and formidable goal – our best chance of tackling climate change and limiting global warming to 1.5C – make this perhaps the greatest challenge humankind has ever faced,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director.
“The IEA’s pathway to this brighter future brings a historic surge in clean energy investment that creates millions of new jobs and lifts global economic growth. Moving the world onto that pathway requires strong and credible policy actions from governments, underpinned by much greater international cooperation.”
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