據Oil & Gas Journal網站6月8日消息 美國能源信息署（EIA）在6月份的短期能源展望（STEO）中上調了未來幾個月布倫特原油價格預期。EIA目前預計，布倫特原油價格在6月份平均為69美元/桶，2021年第三季度平均為68美元/桶，分別比上月的預測高出4美元/桶和5美元/桶。但隨著預測全球石油供應緩慢超過石油需求增長，預計2021年晚些時候和2022年將出現更大的油價下行壓力。

　　這一價格預測使油價在第三季度一直接近或略低于當前水平，并納入了近期的價格上漲和EIA對未來幾個月石油市場基本平衡的預測。

　　鑒于歐佩克宣布增產，EIA預計2021年下半年產量將增長更快，以跟上不斷增長的需求。根據預測，從第二季度到2021年下半年，全球石油消費量增加280萬桶/日，而同期全球石油產量增加430萬桶/日，平衡了第二季度全球石油庫存150萬桶/日的下降。

　　然而，EIA指出，這一預測仍然受到來自新冠疫情的持續經濟復蘇的不確定性的影響。

　　王磊 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

　　原文如下：

　　EIA raises oil price forecast for June, Q3 2021

　　In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent price forecast for the coming months. EIA now expect Brent prices to average $69/bbl in June and $68/bb in third-quarter 2021, $4/bbl and $5/bbl higher, respectively, than last month’s forecast. But larger downward oil price pressures are expected to emerge later in 2021 and into 2022 as forecast global oil supply outpaces slowing oil demand growth.

　　This price forecast keeps prices near or slightly below current levels through the third quarter and incorporates recent price increases and EIA’s forecast of mostly balanced oil markets in the coming months.

　　Given announced increases in production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), EIA expects production to grow more rapidly in second-half 2021 to keep pace with rising demand. In the forecast, global oil consumption rises by 2.8 million b/d from second-quarter to second-half 2021 while global oil production rises 4.3 million b/d during the same period, balancing the 1.5 million b/d of global oil inventory draws during the second quarter.

　　EIA noted, however, that the forecast “remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.”

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