據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2021年6月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)的價(jià)格到今年年底將達(dá)到每桶69.71美元。
這是達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Dallas Fed)能源調(diào)查的最新平均數(shù)據(jù)。該調(diào)查詢(xún)問(wèn)了150家油氣公司的高管，他們對(duì)今年年底WTI價(jià)格的預(yù)期是： 調(diào)查的低預(yù)測(cè)為49美元/桶，高預(yù)測(cè)為85美元/桶。 該調(diào)查在6月9日至17日進(jìn)行。 同期WTI現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均為每桶71.05美元。
達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行在3月10日至3月18日進(jìn)行的上一次能源調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，今年WTI均價(jià)為每桶61.13美元，低預(yù)測(cè)為每桶45美元，高預(yù)測(cè)為每桶85美元。 那次調(diào)查包括152名油氣公司高管的回答，當(dāng)時(shí)WTI現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格平均為每桶64.39美元。
達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行最新的能源調(diào)查還詢(xún)問(wèn)了受訪者，他們是否認(rèn)為未來(lái)2 - 4年內(nèi)全球原油供應(yīng)將出現(xiàn)缺口。 76%的高管認(rèn)為會(huì)有。 83%的高管還透露，他們?cè)陲L(fēng)能和/或太陽(yáng)能方面沒(méi)有投資。 7%的人指出，他們已經(jīng)在技術(shù)上進(jìn)行了投資，9%的人說(shuō)他們計(jì)劃在2025年之前進(jìn)行投資。
達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行對(duì)位于或總部設(shè)在第11區(qū)(德克薩斯州、新墨西哥州南部和路易斯安那州北部)的約200家石油和天然氣公司進(jìn)行一次季度調(diào)查。這些公司的業(yè)務(wù)范圍包括地區(qū)性、全國(guó)性和國(guó)際性業(yè)務(wù)。 達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行表示，收集到的信息是經(jīng)濟(jì)分析的一個(gè)有價(jià)值的組成部分，并為聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(FOMC)的貨幣政策審議提供信息。
李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站
原文如下：
What Price Will WTI Oil Be at End-2021?
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil at the end of 2021 will be $69.71 per barrel.
That’s according to the latest average from the Dallas Fed energy survey, which asked executives from 150 oil and gas firms what they expected the price of WTI to be at the end of the year. The low forecast of the survey came in at $49 per barrel and the high forecast was $85 per barrel. The survey was conducted from June 9 to June 17. WTI spot prices during the period averaged $71.05 per barrel.
Dallas Fed’s previous energy survey, which was conducted from March 10 to March 18, resulted in a WTI average price of $61.13 per barrel, with a low forecast of $45 per barrel and a high forecast of $85 per barrel. WTI spot prices during this survey, which included answers from 152 oil and gas firm executives, averaged $64.39 per barrel.
The latest version of the Dallas Fed energy survey also asked participants if they believed there will be a global crude oil supply gap in the next two to four years. Seventy-six percent of executives said they believed there would be. The majority of executives - 83 percent – also revealed that they don’t have investments in wind and/or solar. Seven percent noted that they already have an investment in the technologies and nine percent said they are planning to make an investment by 2025.
The Dallas Fed conducts a quarterly survey of around 200 oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District - Texas, southern New Mexico, and northern Louisiana - which operate regionally, nationally, or internationally. According to the Dallas Fed, the information collected is a valuable component of economic analysis and serves as input for Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy deliberations.
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