據(jù)油價網(wǎng)6月24日消息：分析師和交易員在接受彭博社調(diào)查時表示，市場普遍預(yù)計歐佩克+聯(lián)盟下周將決定進(jìn)一步放松減產(chǎn)，但 8月份的額外供應(yīng)可能仍低于市場供應(yīng)短缺。

　　歐佩克+的部長們將于7月1日舉行會議，決定如何推進(jìn)石油供應(yīng)市場的管理，這是自4月份以來的首次會議。分析人士預(yù)計，此 次會議將比過去三個月發(fā)出更大的聲音，當(dāng)時該組織開會只是為了確認(rèn)其在5月至7月期間放松減產(chǎn)的計劃。

　　截至7月底，該聯(lián)盟每天將向市場返還210萬桶原油。現(xiàn)在市場在等待歐佩克+的下一步行動。已經(jīng)有報道稱，該集團(tuán)正在考慮 從8月份開始進(jìn)一步放寬削減幅度。

　　接受彭博社調(diào)查的15位分析師中，有13位預(yù)計歐佩克+將增加原油供應(yīng)，但他們的平均預(yù)期是8月份的原油日產(chǎn)量將增加約51萬桶。彭博社指出，根據(jù)歐佩克+本身的估計，這只是8月份預(yù)期供應(yīng)缺口的四分之一。

　　許多分析師認(rèn)為，該組織不會倉促推出大量寬松措施，沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼親王也表示，對過早提供過多供應(yīng)仍持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。

　　阿卜杜勒阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼本月早些時候在俄羅斯的一個論壇上說：“總會有大量的供應(yīng)來滿足需求，但我們必須在看到供應(yīng)之前了解需求。”

　　然而，這位部長正在執(zhí)行一項(xiàng)打擊做空者的任務(wù)，幾個月來一直警告交易員不要押注石油。今年，歐佩克+兩次出乎市場預(yù)期 ，因此沒有人排除下周再次出現(xiàn)意外的可能性。

　　然而，阿卜杜勒阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼最近的評論表明，削減正在放緩。

　　他在彭博社主辦的一次會議上表示:“通過確保市場不會失控，我們還可以在抑制和控制通脹方面發(fā)揮作用。”

　　盛寶銀行周四在評論歐佩克+的反饋時表示：

　　“鑒于美國頁巖產(chǎn)量沒有顯示出復(fù)蘇跡象，該組織可以通過這一決定發(fā)出一個信號，即它是在尋求更高的價格，還是在當(dāng)前水平上保持穩(wěn)定。”

　　馮娟 摘譯自 油價網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Analysts Expect OPEC+ To Raise Oil Supply From August

　　The OPEC+ alliance is widely expected to decide next week to further ease the collective production cuts, but the additional supply from August will likely still be less than the supply deficit on the market, analysts and traders told Bloomberg in a survey.

　　The ministers of OPEC+ meet on July 1 to decide how to proceed with the management of oil supply to the market in the first meeting since April, which analysts expect with more noise than in the past three months when the group was meeting just to confirm plans it had made for easing the cuts between May and July.

　　The alliance will have returned a total of 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) on the market by the end of July. Now the market awaits the next move from OPEC+. Reports have already started to emerge that the group is considering further easing of the cuts from August.

　　Thirteen out of 15 analysts Bloomberg surveyed expect OPEC+ to add more barrels, but their average forecast is for additional supply of around 510,000 bpd from August. This is just a quarter of the expected supply deficit in August, according to estimates from OPEC+ itself, Bloomberg notes.

　　Many analysts believe that the group will not rush the easing with a large number, and the Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has signaled continued caution about bringing too much supply too early.

　　“There will always be a good amount of supply to meet demand, but we’ll have to see demand before you see supply,” Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a forum in Russia earlier this month.

　　The minister, however, is on a mission to wrong-foot short sellers and has been warning traders for months not to bet against oil. This year, OPEC+ surprised market expectations two times, so no one is ruling out another surprise next week.

　　Yet, the most recent comments from Abdulaziz bin Salman suggest that easing of the cuts is on the way.

　　“We have also a role in taming and containing inflation, by making sure that this market doesn’t get out of hand,” he said at a conference, carried by Bloomberg.

　　Commenting on the OPEC+ noise, Saxo Bank said on Thursday:

　　“With US shale production showing no sign of a revival, the group can through its decision send a signal whether it is seeking higher prices or stability at current levels.”

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