自今年早些時(shí)候油價(jià)超過每桶70美元以來，分析師、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和各國(guó)央行一直在擔(dān)心，原油價(jià)格上漲是否會(huì)破壞全球經(jīng)濟(jì)從疫情中復(fù)蘇的勢(shì)頭。

　　多數(shù)專家認(rèn)為，發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的通脹壓力無疑在上升，它們對(duì)油價(jià)上漲比發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)更為敏感。在新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，燃料和食品價(jià)格通常占更多的消費(fèi)支出，因此當(dāng)油價(jià)上漲時(shí)，它們對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的傷害要大于對(duì)成熟市場(chǎng)的傷害。美國(guó)和其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家也開始出現(xiàn)通脹擔(dān)憂。

　　然而，大多數(shù)分析師認(rèn)為，油價(jià)(目前在每桶75美元左右)不會(huì)高到嚴(yán)重放緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的程度，尤其是在美國(guó)和歐洲。在這些地區(qū)，服務(wù)占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的比重很大，而且還在不斷上升，而石油成本占GDP的比重仍低于長(zhǎng)期平均水平。

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和分析師上周對(duì)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(the Wall Street Journal)表示，油價(jià)尚未達(dá)到可能破壞發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈的水平。

　　《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》援引摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的估計(jì)稱，由于油價(jià)上漲，今年全球石油成本占GDP的比重將上升，但仍將低于長(zhǎng)期平均水平。

　　到2021年，如果油價(jià)平均為每桶75美元，石油負(fù)擔(dān)將增加到全球GDP的2.8%。但即使是比前幾年更高的負(fù)擔(dān)也低于3.2%的長(zhǎng)期平均水平，投資銀行說。

　　《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》援引摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)今年早些時(shí)候的一份報(bào)告稱，要使所謂的石油負(fù)擔(dān)達(dá)到長(zhǎng)期平均水平，油價(jià)平均需要再上漲10美元，即每桶85美元。

　　目前對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)顯示，今年的油價(jià)上漲不會(huì)對(duì)大流行后的增長(zhǎng)復(fù)蘇造成重大沖擊。

　　就在上周，歐盟委員會(huì)(EC)提高了對(duì)歐盟和歐元區(qū)的短期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)，預(yù)計(jì)2021年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)4.8%，2022年增長(zhǎng)4.5%。歐盟和歐元區(qū)對(duì)2021年夏季中期經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)的最新預(yù)測(cè)分別比僅一個(gè)季度前的春季預(yù)測(cè)高出0.6和0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　不過，歐盟委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)，不斷上漲的能源和大宗商品價(jià)格，以及生產(chǎn)瓶頸和一些原材料短缺，將給今年的通脹帶來上行壓力。

　　不過，分析師稱，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體(主要是美國(guó)和歐洲)被壓抑的消費(fèi)需求料將維持經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈，并至少目前抵消不斷上升的石油負(fù)擔(dān)。

　　彭博經(jīng)濟(jì)的Maeva Cousin和Ziad Daoud指出，在歐洲和美國(guó)，油價(jià)上漲對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的壓力"相對(duì)于它們從冠狀病毒危機(jī)中復(fù)蘇后的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期而言很小"。

　　據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》報(bào)道，這不僅是因?yàn)槟壳暗念A(yù)測(cè)認(rèn)為發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體將強(qiáng)勁反彈，還因?yàn)樵诜?wù)業(yè)占GDP比重不斷上升的成熟經(jīng)濟(jì)體，生產(chǎn)1美元GDP所需的石油減少了。

　　與幾十年前相比，預(yù)計(jì)原油價(jià)格上漲對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和前景的影響較小。但油價(jià)上漲無疑對(duì)發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體構(gòu)成挑戰(zhàn)，尤其是對(duì)印度等嚴(yán)重依賴石油進(jìn)口的國(guó)家。那里的通脹壓力更大，分析師認(rèn)為油價(jià)超過80美元就是石油需求破壞的開始。

　　摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席石油分析師Martijn Rats本月早些時(shí)候?qū)NBC表示：“在此基礎(chǔ)上，我們預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)相當(dāng)大程度的需求破壞。”

　　拉斯指出：“這將對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生影響，因?yàn)槿绻托枨蟛辉僖酝瑯涌斓乃俣仍鲩L(zhǎng)，那么許多其他工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)過程將依賴于此。”

　　壽琳玲 編譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　High Oil Prices Threaten The Global Economic Recovery

　　Since oil prices exceeded $70 per barrel earlier this year, analysts, economists, and central banks have been fretting about whether higher crude prices could disrupt the momentum in global economic recovery from the pandemic.

　　Most experts argue that inflationary pressure is no doubt rising in developing economies, which are more sensitive than developed markets to rising oil prices.

　　Fuel and food prices generally account for more consumer spending in emerging economies, so they hurt them more than mature markets when oil prices rise.

　　Inflation concerns have also started to emerge in the United States and other developed countries.

　　Yet, most analysts believe that oil prices—currently at around $75 a barrel —are not as high as to seriously slow down economic growth, especially in the U.S. and Europe. In those areas, services account for a large and growing share of gross domestic product, and the cost of oil as a share of GDP is still below the long-term average.

　　Oil prices have not reached the point yet where they could derail the economic rebound in developed markets, economists and analysts told The Wall Street Journal last week.

　　Globally, the cost of oil as a share of GDP, also known as the oil burden, will rise this year because of the higher oil prices, but it will still stay below long-term averages, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley cited by the Journal.

　　In 2021, the oil burden is set to increase to 2.8 percent of the world’s GDP if prices average $75 a barrel. But even this higher burden than in previous years would be lower than the long-term average of 3.2 percent, the investment bank says.

　　Oil would have to average $10 a barrel higher—$85—in order for the so-called oil burden to reach the long-term average, the Journal quoted a Morgan Stanley report from earlier this year.

　　Current economic projections for developed economies show that this year’s oil price rally will not be a significant bump to the post-pandemic growth recovery.

　　Just last week, the European Commission (EC) raised its short-term economic growth projection for the European Union and the Eurozone, expecting the economy to expand by 4.8 percent in 2021 and by 4.5 percent in 2022. The latest forecasts in the Summer 2021 interim Economic Forecast are 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points higher for the EU and the Eurozone, respectively, than in the spring forecast made just a quarter ago.

　　Still, the Commission expects rising energy and commodity prices to put upward pressure on inflation this year, alongside production bottlenecks and shortage of some raw materials.

　　However, pent-up consumer demand in developed economies, mostly in the United States and Europe, is set to sustain the economic rebound and offset, at least for now, the rising oil burden, analysts say.

　　In Europe and the United States, the pressure of higher oil prices on economic growth “is small in the context of the very strong growth expected as they emerge from the Covid crisis,” Bloomberg Economics’ Maeva Cousin and Ziad Daoud note.

　　That’s not only because current projections see a strong rebound in developed economies, but also because less oil is now needed to produce a dollar of GDP in mature economies where the share of the services sector is growing, according to the Journal.

　　Rising crude prices are expected to have a small effect on the overall economic growth and outlook on developed economies than they did a few decades ago. But higher prices are certainly challenging to developing economies, especially those heavily dependent on oil imports such as India. Inflationary pressures are stronger there, and analysts see $80 oil as the red line beyond which oil demand destruction begins.

　　“Above that, we would expect quite a bit of demand destruction to kick in,” Martijn Rats, chief oil analyst at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC earlier this month.

　　“That then would have implications for economic growth because if oil demand doesn’t grow quite as fast anymore then an awful lot of other industrial economic processes depend on that,” Rats noted.

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