據(jù)今日油價7月19日報道，高盛(Goldman Sachs)在一份報告中稱，OPEC+在周日達(dá)成的協(xié)議，對今年夏季高盛預(yù)測布倫特原油將升至80美元/桶略顯樂觀，此前該組織同意從8月開始每月增加40萬桶/天日的產(chǎn)量。
上周，高盛重申了對布倫特原油價格80美元的預(yù)測，盡管有報道稱沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國(UAE)已經(jīng)達(dá)成了一項石油生產(chǎn)協(xié)議，將延長歐佩克+協(xié)議至明年年底。
周日，OPEC+同意將該協(xié)議從2020年4月延長至2022年12月底，并從2021年8月開始每月增加40萬桶/日（bpd），鑒于全球石油需求的改善，逐步取消該組織目前禁止上市的580萬桶/日的條款。該組織還向阿聯(lián)酋以及沙特阿拉伯、俄羅斯、科威特和伊拉克提供了截至2022年5月的較高基準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)量水平。
高盛（Goldman Sachs）在路透發(fā)布的一份聲明中表示：“該協(xié)議有兩個不同的重點：一是適度增產(chǎn)，這將使市場在未來幾個月保持赤字；二是在未來幾年，鑒于投資不足的情況下，將需要提高產(chǎn)能。”
該行表示，OPEC+達(dá)成的協(xié)議比高盛今年夏天每桶 80 美元的價格“上漲”2 美元，比明年布倫特原油預(yù)測的每桶 75 美元上漲 5 美元。
壽琳玲 編譯自 今日油價
Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Following OPEC Deal
Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Following OPEC Deal
The agreement which OPEC+ reached on Sunday is modestly bullish for Goldman Sachs’s forecast that Brent will hit $80 per barrel this summer, the investment bank said in a note after the group agreed to start adding 400,000 bpd production each month from August.
Last week, Goldman Sachs reiterated?its $80 price forecast for Brent crude despite reports that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had reached a deal on oil production that would extend the OPEC+ deal until the end of next year.
On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to extend the deal from April 2020 through the end of December 2022 and to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) on a monthly basis beginning in August 2021 and until phasing out all the 5.8 million bpd the group is currently keeping off the market, in light of improving global oil demand. The group also gave higher baseline production levels as of May 2022 not only to the UAE but also to Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, and Iraq.
“The agreement had two distinct points of focus: a moderate increase in production which will keep the market in deficit in the coming months, as well as guidance for higher capacity which will be needed in coming years given growing under-investment,” Goldman Sachs said in a note, as carried by Reuters.
The agreement that OPEC+ reached is a $2 per barrel “upside” to Goldman’s $80 a barrel call for this summer, as well as a $5 upside to the forecast of Brent of $75 a barrel next year, the bank said.
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