據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年8月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，歐佩克8月12日表示，今年全球石油日需求量預(yù)計(jì)平均9660萬桶，2022年下半年將突破1億桶大關(guān)。盡管Covid-19在主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體死灰復(fù)燃，但歐佩克仍維持一個(gè)月前的預(yù)測(cè)不變 。

　　在其最新一期的月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告(MOMR)中，歐佩克上調(diào)了其對(duì)2021年和2022年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)，但仍維持7月對(duì)全球石油需求的預(yù)測(cè)不變，預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將主要發(fā)生在非石油密集型行業(yè)。 今年和明年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)了0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，歐佩克目前預(yù)計(jì)2021年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為5.6%，2022年的增長(zhǎng)率為4.2%。

　　“然而，仍然存在許多挑戰(zhàn)，很容易抑制這一增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭。 特別是，未來幾個(gè)月需要密切監(jiān)測(cè)與Covid -19相關(guān)的事態(tài)發(fā)展，特別是考慮到北半球臨近年底通常會(huì)出現(xiàn)更冷的天氣。”

　　歐佩克表示，明年全球石油日需求量平均為9990萬桶，2022年下半年將超過1億桶。 這將歸功于預(yù)計(jì)將促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的大規(guī)模刺激計(jì)劃，以及在疫苗接種計(jì)劃和改善治療的支持下，疫情將得到控制的預(yù)期。

　　在維持需求預(yù)測(cè)不變的同時(shí)，歐佩克大幅提高了對(duì)非歐佩克國(guó)家供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)，今年將增加27萬桶/天，2022年將大幅增加84萬桶/天。 此次上調(diào)需求預(yù)期是因?yàn)闅W佩克+協(xié)議，包括非歐佩克國(guó)家俄羅斯在內(nèi)的聯(lián)盟成員將通過每月向市場(chǎng)增加40萬桶/天來解除剩余的減產(chǎn)。 歐佩克表示，除了俄羅斯和歐佩克+協(xié)議的其他非歐佩克成員國(guó)，美國(guó)和加拿大將是提高非歐佩克原油供應(yīng)量的主要推動(dòng)因素。 預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)將在2021年增加12萬桶/天的供應(yīng)量，在2022年增加80萬桶/天。

　　歐佩克的報(bào)告顯示，在2021年7月的產(chǎn)量方面，歐佩克的原油產(chǎn)量平均為2666萬桶/天，增加了64萬桶/天，這要?dú)w功于沙特阿拉伯的大幅增產(chǎn)，這是沙特取消了其額外減產(chǎn)100萬桶/天的最后一部分。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC Sees Oil Demand At 100 Million Bpd Next Year Despite COVID Surge

　　Global oil demand is expected to average 96.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and exceed 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022, OPEC said on Thursday, keeping its estimates from a month ago unchanged despite the COVID resurgence in major economies, including China and the United States.

　　In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the organization raised its estimates for global economic growth for both 2021 and 2022, but left unchanged last month’s forecasts for global oil demand, expecting the economic recovery to take place mainly in non-oil intensive sectors. Global economic growth forecasts for this year and next were revised up by 0.1 percentage point, with OPEC now expecting growth for 2021 at 5.6 percent and growth in 2022 at 4.2 percent.

　　“However, numerous challenges remain that could easily dampen this momentum. In particular, COVID-19-related developments will need close monitoring over the coming months, especially when considering the usual colder weather in the northern hemisphere towards the end of the year,” the cartel said.

　　Next year, global oil demand is set to average 99.9 million bpd, and to exceed 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022, OPEC said. This will be thanks to massive stimulus packages expected to raise economic growth and to expectations that the COVID-19 pandemic will be under control, supported by vaccination programs and improved treatment.

　　While leaving demand forecasts unchanged, OPEC significantly raised its estimates for non-OPEC supply growth, by 270,000 bpd for 2021 and by a massive 840,000 bpd for 2022. The upward revisions were made because of the OPEC+ deal which will see the alliance including non-OPEC Russia unwind their remaining cuts, by adding 400,000 bpd to the market each month. Apart from Russia and other non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ pact, the key drivers of higher non-OPEC supply will be the United States and Canada, OPEC said. The U.S. is now expected to raise its supply by 120,000 bpd annually in 2021 and by 800,000 bpd year-on-year in 2022.

　　In terms of July 2021 production, OPEC’s crude oil production averaged 26.66 million bpd, up by 640,000 bpd, thanks to a large increase from Saudi Arabia which unwind the last part of its extra 1-million-bpd cut, OPEC’s report showed.

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