據(jù)ICIS 8月6日消息，需求的普遍增長(zhǎng)推動(dòng)了第二季度化學(xué)品產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)，6月份全球化學(xué)品開(kāi)工率也有所上升。

　　美國(guó)化學(xué)理事會(huì)的最新全球數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管存在明顯的地區(qū)差異，但6月份的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭有所增強(qiáng)，這增加了管理層對(duì)今年下半年或至少在第三季度繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的普遍預(yù)期。

　　歐洲丙烯腈-丁二烯-苯乙烯(ABS)市場(chǎng)的供應(yīng)短缺預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)到2021年下半年，因?yàn)槌掷m(xù)的壓力可能會(huì)阻止艱難的市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)的任何緩解，包括供應(yīng)鏈中的生產(chǎn)問(wèn)題、進(jìn)口量低以及強(qiáng)勁的需求。

　　看漲的美國(guó)乙二醇醚現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格開(kāi)啟了對(duì)第三季度歐洲丙二醇甲基醚(PM)出口的套利。

　　中東石化需求在夏季呈上升趨勢(shì)，而市場(chǎng)參與者繼續(xù)解決高運(yùn)費(fèi)和嚴(yán)重的集裝箱短缺問(wèn)題。

　　然而，隨著Delta毒株蔓延至亞洲的每一個(gè)角落，快速上升的病例可能會(huì)令各經(jīng)濟(jì)體陷入困境。在某種程度上，高傳染性的Delta變種甚至可能顛覆石化和石油化工市場(chǎng)的需求。

　　港口擁堵可能會(huì)繼續(xù)影響亞洲對(duì)ABS的需求，因?yàn)楣?yīng)鏈上的買(mǎi)家在貨物抵達(dá)延遲的情況下選擇推遲采購(gòu)。

　　化學(xué)品市場(chǎng)可能受到供應(yīng)鏈延伸庫(kù)存增加的人為提振，但下游需求疲弱可能導(dǎo)致2021年下半年快速去庫(kù)存化。

　　與此同時(shí)，即將在美國(guó)生效的制冷劑法規(guī)應(yīng)鼓勵(lì)建筑改用氫氟烯烴(HFOs)和其他強(qiáng)敵較低的溫室氣體，正如汽車(chē)制造商大多已改用的那樣。

　　裘寅 編譯自 ICIS

　　原文如下：

　　Coronavirus, oil price direction – impact on chemicals

　　A widespread increase in demand drove chemicals production up in the second quarter, with the global chemical operating rate climbing higher in June.

　　The latest global data from the American Chemistry Council shows increased momentum in June, albeit with clear regional differences, adding weight to widespread management expectations of continued growth in the second half of the year, or in the third quarter, at least.

　　The supply shortage in the European acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) market is expected to continue across H2 2021, as ongoing pressures are likely to prevent any relief to the difficult market situation, including production issues in the supply chain, low imports, and strong demand.

　　Bullish US glycol ether spot prices have opened an arbitrage for European propylene glycol methyl ether (PM) exports in Q3.

　　Petrochemical demand in the Middle East is on an uptrend during summer while market players continue to tackle high freight costs and severe container shortages.

　　However, with the Delta strain in every nook and cranny of Asia, economies could be brought to their knees amid fast-rising cases. To some degree, the highly transmissible Delta variant could even upend demand in petrochemical and oleochemical markets.

　　Port congestion is likely to continue to affect Asian demand for ABS as buyers across the supply chain opt to postpone purchases amid delayed cargo arrivals.

　　Chemical markets may be artificially buoyed by inventory building along stretched supply chains, but poor downstream demand could lead to rapid destocking in the second half of 2021.

　　Meanwhile, refrigerant regulations that should soon go into effect in the US should encourage buildings to switch over to hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) and other less powerful greenhouse gases, as automobile producers have mostly changed over.

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