據(jù)阿拉伯貿(mào)易12月20日消息稱，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)在一份新報(bào)告中稱，繼2019年和2020年下降后，全球燃煤發(fā)電量預(yù)計(jì)將在2021年增長(zhǎng)9%，達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的10350太瓦時(shí)。

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署的《2021年煤炭報(bào)告》，2021年全球煤炭發(fā)電量將創(chuàng)下新的年度紀(jì)錄，這削弱了減少溫室氣體排放的努力，并可能使明年的全球煤炭需求達(dá)到歷史最高水平。

今年經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速?gòu)?fù)蘇推動(dòng)了電力需求的回升，這大大超出了低碳供應(yīng)的能力。天然氣價(jià)格的大幅上漲也增加了對(duì)煤電的需求，使其更具成本競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

2021年，全球煤炭總需求——包括發(fā)電以外的用途，如水泥和鋼鐵生產(chǎn)——預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)6%。這一增長(zhǎng)不會(huì)超過(guò) 2013 年和 2014 年達(dá)到的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平。

IEA 執(zhí)行官Fatih Birol表示：“煤炭是全球碳排放的最大單一來(lái)源，今年煤炭發(fā)電的歷史高位是一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的信號(hào)，表明世界在努力將碳排放降至凈零方面還有多遠(yuǎn)?！?/p>

“如果各國(guó)政府不采取強(qiáng)有力的、立即的行動(dòng)，以公平、可負(fù)擔(dān)和安全的方式解決煤炭排放問(wèn)題，我們將幾乎沒有機(jī)會(huì)將全球變暖限制在1.5攝氏度以內(nèi)。”

在亞洲大國(guó)，盡管煤電在今年年底有所減速，但預(yù)計(jì)2021年煤電將增長(zhǎng)9%。全球一半以上的燃煤發(fā)電都在此進(jìn)行。在印度，預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng) 12%。這將在兩國(guó)創(chuàng)造歷史新高，即使它們推出了大量的太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能發(fā)電能力。

盡管美國(guó)和歐盟今年的煤炭發(fā)電量將增長(zhǎng)近20%，但這不足以使其高于2019年的水平。由于電力需求增長(zhǎng)緩慢和可再生能源的快速擴(kuò)張，預(yù)計(jì)這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的煤炭使用量明年將重新下降。

朱佳妮 摘譯自 阿拉伯貿(mào)易

原文如下：

Power generation from coal to hit record high in 2021: IEA

After falling in 2019 and 2020, global power generation from coal is expected to jump by 9% in 2021 to an all-time high of 10,350 terawatt-hours, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a new report.

The amount of electricity generated worldwide from coal is surging towards a new annual record in 2021, undermining efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potentially putting global coal demand on course for an all-time high next year, according to the IEA’s Coal 2021 report.

The rebound is being driven by this year’s rapid economic recovery, which has pushed up electricity demand much faster than low-carbon supplies can keep up. The steep rise in natural gas prices has also increased demand for coal power by making it more cost-competitive.  

Overall coal demand worldwide – including uses beyond power generation, such as cement and steel production – is forecast to grow by 6% in 2021. That increase will not take it above the record levels it reached in 2013 and 2014.

“Coal is the single largest source of global carbon emissions, and this year’s historically high level of coal power generation is a worrying sign of how far off track the world is in its efforts to put emissions into decline towards net zero,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

“Without strong and immediate actions by governments to tackle coal emissions – in a way that is fair, affordable and secure for those affected – we will have little chance, if any at all, of limiting global warming to 1.5C.”

In the biggest country of Asia, where more than half of global coal-fired electricity generation takes place, coal power is expected to grow by 9% in 2021 despite a deceleration at the end of the year. In India, it is forecast to grow by 12%. This would set new all-time highs in both countries, even as they roll out impressive amounts of solar and wind capacity.

While coal power generation is set to increase by almost 20% this year in the United States and the European Union, that is not enough to take it above 2019 levels. Coal use in those two markets is expected to go back into decline next year amid slow electricity demand growth and rapid expansion of renewable power.

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