據鉆機地帶1月12日報道，美國能源信息署 (EIA)在其1月份短期能源展望 (STEO)透露，該機構上調了2022年布倫特原油現貨均價預測。

該機構目前預計，今年布倫特原油現貨均價為74.95美元/桶，較EIA去年12月的STEO預測的70.05美元/桶高出4.9美元。

最新STEO預測，展望2023年，布倫特原油現貨均價明年將首次跌至每桶67.50美元。EIA 1月份的STEO報告指出，2021年布倫特原油現貨均價為每桶70.89美元。

在最新的STEO中，EIA預測2022年全球石油庫存將以每天50萬桶的速度增加，2023年將以每天60萬桶的速度增加。EIA估計全球液體燃料庫存在2021日均下降了140萬桶。據說，2020年，日均增加210萬桶。

該機構預計，2022年全球液體燃料日消耗量將增加360萬桶，2023年將增加180萬桶。2022年，歐佩克原油日產量預計將增加250萬桶，達到2880萬桶，2023年將進一步增加100000桶，達到2890萬桶。

預計今年美國原油日均產量將達到1180萬桶，2023年將達到創紀錄的1240萬桶。據顯示，2021年美國原油日均產量為1120萬桶。目前的紀錄是2019年創下的1230萬桶/天。

EIA 指出，其最新的STEO繼續反映出由于持續的新冠疫情而導致的不確定性增強。

EIA在1月份的STEO中指出,特別是,新冠病毒的奧密克戎變種引發了關于全球能源消費的問題。

EIA補充道，除了宏觀經濟的不確定性外，冬季天氣和消費者能源需求的不確定性也為能源消費帶來了潛在的后果。

EIA繼續道，預測中的供應不確定性源于歐佩克+生產決策的不確定性以及美國油氣生產商增加鉆探活動的速度。

撰寫本文時，布倫特原油價格為每桶84.12美元。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

EIA Raises Oil Price Forecast for 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent spot average price forecast for 2022, its January short term energy outlook (STEO) has revealed.

The organization now sees Brent spot prices averaging $74.95 per barrel this year, which marks a $4.90 increase on its previous 2022 projection of $70.05, which was made in the EIA’s December STEO.

Looking ahead to 2023 for the first time, the latest STEO forecasts that average Brent spot prices will drop to $67.50 per barrel next year. Brent spot prices averaged $70.89 per barrel in 2021, the EIA’s January STEO highlighted.

In its latest STEO, the EIA projects that global oil inventories will increase at a rate of 500,000 barrels per day in 2022 and 600,000 barrels per day in 2023. The EIA estimates that global liquid fuels inventories fell by an average of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2021. These were said to have grown by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2020.

The organization expects global liquid fuels consumption will grow by 3.6 million barrels per day in 2022 and by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023. OPEC crude oil production is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day to average 28.8 million barrels per day in 2022 and by a further 100,000 barrels per day in 2023 to average 28.9 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 11.8 million barrels per day this year before rising to a new record of 12.4 million barrels per day in 2023. The U.S. was shown to have averaged 11.2 million barrels per day in 2021. Its current record of 12.3 million barrels per day was set in 2019.

The EIA notes that its latest STEO continues to reflect heightened levels of uncertainty as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.

“Notably, the Omicron variant of Covid-19 raises questions about global energy consumption,” the EIA noted in its January STEO.

“In addition to macroeconomic uncertainties, uncertainty about winter weather and consumer energy demand also present a wide range of potential outcomes for energy consumption,” the EIA added.

“Supply uncertainty in the forecast stems from uncertainty about OPEC+ production decisions and the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas producers will increase drilling,” the EIA continued.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent stood at $84.12 per barrel.

免責聲明：本網轉載自其它媒體的文章，目的在于弘揚石化精神，傳遞更多石化信息，并不代表本網贊同其觀點和對其真實性負責，在此我們謹向原作者和原媒體致以敬意。如果您認為本站文章侵犯了您的版權，請與我們聯系，我們將第一時間刪除。