據(jù)能源網(wǎng)8月8日休斯敦報道，美國頁巖油鉆探公司仍沒有表現(xiàn)出增加產(chǎn)量以應(yīng)對全球油價高企的跡象，只是現(xiàn)在他們不僅專注于回報股東，而且還專注于飆升的成本。

盡管地緣政治沖突后，美國原油價格今年飆升至每桶120美元，但近日公布二季度業(yè)績的十多家公司的石油和天然氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)測與三個月前相比幾乎沒有變化，僅下降了0.6%。與此同時，柴油、鋼鐵、化工和勞動力成本的上漲促使這些公司將資本預(yù)算提高了7%。

頁巖油高管不愿提高產(chǎn)量，意味著世界油市實際上已經(jīng)失去了兩大增長引擎。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）本周承認“過剩產(chǎn)能嚴重受限”，并表示只能“非常謹慎”地利用剩余的少量產(chǎn)能。與此同時，美國鉆探商得出結(jié)論，創(chuàng)紀錄的利潤和現(xiàn)金流最好用于股票回購和分紅，而不是部署更多鉆機。

Diamondback能源公司的首席財務(wù)官Kaes Van 't Hof在與分析師的電話會議上表示，“那里沒有石油。油價每波動10美元、20美元、30美元，都不會改變我們的計劃”。

目前，美國油田的日產(chǎn)量約為1200萬桶，比一年前高出8%，但仍比疫情暴發(fā)前的最高日產(chǎn)量低100萬桶。幾乎只有埃克森美孚和雪佛龍等大型石油公司以及類似紐伯恩石油公司（Mewbourne Oil Co .）的家族企業(yè)計劃大幅提高石油產(chǎn)量。

即便地緣政治沖突后油價飆升，以及美國政府要求增加供應(yīng)，也沒有吸引美國頁巖油開采商回到長期以來慣用的增長模式。Smead Capital Managemen Inc.管理著48億美元資產(chǎn)的比爾·斯米德（Bill Smead）說，在接連發(fā)生的原油市場崩盤之后，他們終于學會了“紀律”。

管理著約3500億美元資產(chǎn)的Janus Henderson的首席能源分析師諾亞·巴雷特（Noah Barrett）表示，頁巖勘探者也不愿在現(xiàn)有鉆井計劃之外進行投資，因為在成本膨脹的情況下，“效率不斷下降”。

頁巖鉆探公司目前正在獲得巨額利潤。在彭博集團追蹤的35家獨立鉆井公司中，有超過一半已經(jīng)公布了季度盈利，該集團有望報告創(chuàng)紀錄的264億美元自由現(xiàn)金流。其中大部分將通過股票回購和股息返還給投資者。

Devon能源公司首席執(zhí)行官Rick Muncrief表示，“對我們來說，回歸增長模式似乎是一項長期任務(wù)。我們肯定沒有從投資者那里得到這樣的反饋”。

郝芬 譯自 能源網(wǎng)

原文如下:

Shale Drillers Are Holding Firm on Output as Oilfield Costs Rise -Bloomberg

US shale oil drillers continue to show little sign of responding to high global prices with more production, only now it’s not just their focus on rewarding shareholders that’s holding them back, but also a preoccupation with soaring costs.

The combined oil and gas production forecasts from a dozen companies that have reported second-quarter results in recent days is barely changed from three months earlier, down just 0.6%, despite US crude prices surging to $120 a barrel this year after the war. At the same time, higher diesel, steel, chemical and labor costs have prompted the companies to raise capital budgets by 7%.

Shale executives’ unwillingness to boost production means the world oil market has effectively lost its two biggest growth engines. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries admitted to “severely limited availability of excess capacity” this week, and said what little is left can only be tapped with “great caution.” Meanwhile, US drillers have concluded that record profits and cash flows are better spent on share buybacks and dividends rather than deploying more rigs. 

“There’s no oil out there,” Kaes Van’t Hof, chief financial officer of Diamondback Energy Inc., said during a conference call with analysts. “We’re not changing our plan for every $10, $20, $30 move in oil price.”

US oilfields currently pump about 12 million barrels a day, 8% higher than a year ago but still 1 million barrels a day below the pre-pandemic all-time high. Just about the only American companies planning to significantly expand output are supermajors like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. or family-owned operators such as Mewbourne Oil Co.  

Even the jump in oil prices after the war , and pleas from the Adiministration for supply hikes, haven’t lured US shale drillers back to the growth mode that was long their modus operandi. They’re finally learning “discipline” after back-to-back crude-market crashes, said Bill Smead, who manages $4.8 billion at Smead Capital Managemen Inc.

Shale explorers also are unwilling to invest beyond current drilling plans because of “deteriorating efficiencies” amid cost inflation, said Noah Barrett, lead energy analyst at Janus Henderson, which manages about $350 billion.

Shale drillers are reaping huge profits at the moment. With over half of the 35 independent drillers tracked in BloombergNEF having posted quarterly earnings, the group is on track to report a record $26.4 billion in free cash flow. Most of that will be funneled back to investors through buybacks and dividends. 

Returning to growth mode “just seems like a real long punt for us right now,” said Rick Muncrief, Devon Energy Corp.’s CEO. “We’re certainly not getting that feedback from our investors.”