據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)全國(guó)平均油價(jià)在5月初達(dá)到每加侖5.02美元的峰值后，已連續(xù)70天下跌，周三跌至每加侖3.88美元，創(chuàng)下20年來(lái)第二長(zhǎng)的連續(xù)跌勢(shì)。

但專家們現(xiàn)在警告稱，消費(fèi)者不應(yīng)該被誤導(dǎo)，產(chǎn)生一種錯(cuò)誤的信心，認(rèn)為跌勢(shì)會(huì)持續(xù)下去。CIBC Private Wealth高級(jí)能源交易員麗貝卡?巴賓（Rebecca Babin）在接受雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)（Yahoo Finance Live）采訪時(shí)警告稱，有兩個(gè)因素可能給天然氣價(jià)格帶來(lái)上行壓力:儲(chǔ)量和制裁。

巴賓表示，即使汽油需求下降，供應(yīng)也會(huì)隨之下降，但不會(huì)出現(xiàn)大幅回落。全國(guó)汽油價(jià)格可能會(huì)自此上漲。

巴賓指出，政府大規(guī)模釋放石油儲(chǔ)備的計(jì)劃將于11月結(jié)束，而歐洲將于12月實(shí)施制裁。她認(rèn)為，這兩個(gè)因素都可能減少石油供應(yīng)，推高價(jià)格，并波及汽油。更重要的是，這將與北美的取暖油季節(jié)相吻合，這意味著煉油商將更傾向于將原油制成取暖油，而不是汽油。

自本周開(kāi)始以來(lái)，原油價(jià)格一直在削減稍早前的損失，此前沙特石油大臣表示，當(dāng)前的熊市可能需要?dú)W佩克+收緊產(chǎn)量，因?yàn)槠谪泝r(jià)格沒(méi)有反映供需基本面。

這位負(fù)責(zé)人警告稱，期貨市場(chǎng)的極端波動(dòng)性和缺乏流動(dòng)性正在以不符合正常供需因素的方式影響價(jià)格，這可能會(huì)促使歐佩克+采取行動(dòng)。

彭博評(píng)論專欄作家Javier Blas表示，油價(jià)100美元的可能性更大，稱之為價(jià)格下限，歐佩克+看跌期權(quán)的回歸，或者簡(jiǎn)單地說(shuō)，是一條底線。不管如何用文字描述這個(gè)底線，利雅得的干預(yù)表明傾向于將油價(jià)保持在100美元左右。

郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Lagging Demand Won’t Keep Gas Prices From Soaring Again

After peaking in early-May at $5.02 per gallon, U.S. national average gas prices have declined for 70 straight days to trade at $3.88 per gallon on Wednesday, marking the second-longest losing streak in two decades.

But experts are now warning that consumers should not be lulled into a false sense of confidence thinking the cuts will last. In an interview with Yahoo Finance Live, Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, has warned that two factors could put upward pressure on gas prices: reserves and sanctions.

“Even if demand dips [for gasoline], supply will dip with it, and I don’t see a significant pullback. If anything, I think that gasoline prices on the national average will probably rise from here,” Babin has said.

Babin notes the giant SPR release of oil reserves by the Biden administration is set to end in November while Europe is due to implement sanctions  in December. She argues that both factors could cut oil supply, pushing prices higher and rippling through to gasoline. Compounding matters is the fact that this will coincide with the heating oil season in North America, meaning refiners will be more inclined to make crude into heating oil instead of gasoline.

Since the beginning of the week, crude oil prices have been paring back earlier losses after Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the current bear market may require OPEC+ to tighten production because futures prices do not reflect underlying fundamentals of supply and demand.

"Extreme volatility and lack of liquidity in the futures market are moving prices in ways that do not conform to normal supply and demand factors, which may spark OPEC+ to take action,’ the Saudi oil chief warned.

Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas says $100 oil just got a lot more likely following bin Salman’s comments: “Call it a price floor, the return of the OPEC+ put or, simply, a line in the sand. Whatever its name, Riyadh’s intervention indicates a preference to keep oil near $100.