據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶11月18日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)原油市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)正顯示出近一年來(lái)首次出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)過剩的跡象，這是最近一段石油期貨市場(chǎng)暴跌規(guī)模的最新指標(biāo)。

反映短期供需平衡的即月價(jià)差，在12月合約將于周一到期之前交易，出現(xiàn)期貨溢價(jià)(期貨溢價(jià)是對(duì)看跌市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)的行業(yè)術(shù)語(yǔ))。另一個(gè)隨后的價(jià)差也變成了期貨溢價(jià)。其余的仍處于相反的看漲結(jié)構(gòu)，即現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)，表明這一走勢(shì)仍可能是短期的。

市場(chǎng)參與者表示，此舉在很大程度上可歸因于期貨交易員積累了大量的多頭頭寸，并在整體價(jià)格因需求擔(dān)憂而暴跌的同時(shí)退出。潛在的現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)疲軟以及得克薩斯州管道中斷和高運(yùn)費(fèi)等短期因素也導(dǎo)致了期貨合約的崩潰，而西得克薩斯州中質(zhì)原油期貨自9月以來(lái)首次跌破80美元。

周五的暴跌也恰逢12月- 1月價(jià)差期權(quán)合約到期。如果期貨溢價(jià)到期，將有近1300萬(wàn)桶看跌期權(quán)獲利。當(dāng)期權(quán)越過支付的水平時(shí)，就會(huì)刺激更多的拋售。

TP ICAP集團(tuán)的能源專家斯科特·謝爾頓表示，最重要的是，除亞洲以外對(duì)石油的需求并不好，盡管美國(guó)的需求可能還不錯(cuò)，但美國(guó)正在努力應(yīng)對(duì)管道故障，這放緩了出口，并產(chǎn)生了可能持續(xù)幾周的疲軟。市場(chǎng)定位正好相反，這迫使清算，使情況變得更糟。

期貨溢價(jià)可以讓有儲(chǔ)油渠道的貿(mào)易商更有利可圖，他們可以根據(jù)價(jià)格之間的差距程度，將石油裝進(jìn)油罐，并在以后的某一天出售。如果石油市場(chǎng)在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)處于期貨溢價(jià)，其還會(huì)產(chǎn)生所謂的換月滾動(dòng)收益率，即當(dāng)投資者將一個(gè)頭寸從一個(gè)月滾轉(zhuǎn)到下一個(gè)月時(shí)，他們往往會(huì)虧損。

最近幾天，美國(guó)低硫原油價(jià)格的疲軟已在現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)。根據(jù)彭博社的公允價(jià)值數(shù)據(jù)顯示，麥哲倫中流合伙人公司(Magellan Midstream Partners LP)位于東休斯敦的終端原油交易處于5月份以來(lái)的最低水平。根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，由于殼牌公司(Shell Plc)運(yùn)營(yíng)的一條至關(guān)重要的地區(qū)輸油管道的開工率降低，二疊紀(jì)油田的產(chǎn)量也處于近六個(gè)月以來(lái)的低點(diǎn)。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

USA Oil Futures Point to Oversupply for First Time This Year

The US crude market’s structure is signaling oversupply for the first time in almost a year, the latest indicator of the scale of the dramatic slump in the nearest section of the oil futures market.

The front-month spread, which reflects short-term supply-demand balances, traded in contango -- the industry term for the bearish market structure -- ahead of the December contract’s expiry on Monday. One other subsequent spread also flipped to contango. The rest remain in the opposite bullish structure, known as backwardation, indicating the move could yet be a short-term one.

Much of the move can be attributed to futures traders amassing a bloated long position and heading for the exits at the same time as headline prices plummet due to demand worries, market participants said. Underlying physical market weakness and short-term factors such as a Texas pipeline outage and high freight rates have also led to the collapse in timespreads, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell below $80 for the first time since September.

Friday’s plunge also coincides with the expiry of options contracts on the December-January spread. There are almost 13 million barrels of put options that would profit if the spread expires in contango. When options move through the levels at which they pay out, they can spur additional selling.

“Bottom line here is that demand for oil out of Asia isn’t good and while it may be decent in the US, it’s struggling with the pipe outage that slows exports and generates weakness that may last for a few weeks,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc. “The market positioning was the exact opposite, which has forced liquidation and made this even worse.”

Contango can make it more profitable for traders with access to storage to put oil in tanks and sell at a later date, depending on the extent of the the gap between prices. If oil markets are in contango over a sustained period, it also generates so-called negative roll yield, where investors tend to lose money when they roll a position forward from one month to the next.  

The weakness in US light-sweet crude prices has shown up in physical markets in recent days. Crude at Magellan Midstream Partners LP’s East Houston terminal is trading at the softest level since May, according to Bloomberg fair value data. Permian oil is also at a near-six-month low, the data show, with a vital regional oil pipeline run by Shell Plc running at reduced rates.