美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）：9月份美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量接近1230萬(wàn)桶

盡管原油產(chǎn)量在增長(zhǎng)，但增速只有2015-2016年油價(jià)暴跌后反彈時(shí)的一半

成本通脹和工人短缺繼續(xù)拖累美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)12月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管最近美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量達(dá)到了自今年5月全球疫情大流行低點(diǎn)低于1000萬(wàn)桶以來(lái)的最高水平，但今年的原油產(chǎn)量增速已明顯放緩，原因是頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)區(qū)陷入困境、勞動(dòng)力短缺、供應(yīng)鏈延誤以及供應(yīng)成本高企，而生產(chǎn)商則專(zhuān)注于回報(bào)股東而不是鉆新井。美國(guó)9月原油日產(chǎn)量接近1230萬(wàn)桶，這是美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）上周在石油供應(yīng)月報(bào)中公布的最新綜合數(shù)據(jù)。今年1月至9月，美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量平均為1173.3萬(wàn)桶，美國(guó)政府目前對(duì)今年美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量的平均預(yù)測(cè)為1170萬(wàn)桶。

盡管原油產(chǎn)量在增長(zhǎng)，但增速只有2015-2016年油價(jià)暴跌后反彈時(shí)的一半，當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)2018年和2019年每年的原油日產(chǎn)量飆升了100萬(wàn)桶，甚至更多。 

美國(guó)那些原油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)迅猛的日子可能一去不復(fù)返了，因?yàn)樯a(chǎn)商仍然將支出優(yōu)先于鉆新井，而成本通脹和供應(yīng)鏈問(wèn)題甚至阻礙了那些愿意提高原油產(chǎn)量的企業(yè)。

9月份的原油日產(chǎn)量遠(yuǎn)高于2020年5月的970萬(wàn)桶，當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商在全球和美國(guó)原油需求在疫情大流行開(kāi)始時(shí)大幅下降后削減了產(chǎn)量。

自那以后，原油產(chǎn)量有所增長(zhǎng)，但與2014年或2018-2019年的增長(zhǎng)速度不同。

根據(jù)路透社市場(chǎng)分析師約翰·肯普匯編的EIA數(shù)據(jù)，今年迄今，美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量以約60萬(wàn)～70萬(wàn)桶的年率增長(zhǎng)。這還不到2015-2016年油價(jià)暴跌前后增長(zhǎng)率的一半。  

根據(jù)《11月份短期能源展望》報(bào)告，美國(guó)能源信息署預(yù)計(jì)，今年美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量平均將為1170萬(wàn)桶，2023年為1240萬(wàn)桶，均將超過(guò)2019年創(chuàng)下的歷史新高。

盡管預(yù)計(jì)明年的原油產(chǎn)量將創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄，但到目前為止，美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署已多次下調(diào)了今年的原油產(chǎn)量。根據(jù)路透社的計(jì)算，最新的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期大幅下調(diào)了21%。  

在10月份的預(yù)測(cè)中，EIA已經(jīng)將2023年的平均原油日產(chǎn)量估值從9月份的1260萬(wàn)桶下調(diào)至1240萬(wàn)桶。 

一些頁(yè)巖高管表示，美國(guó)的頁(yè)巖活動(dòng)已經(jīng)停滯。還有人指出，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖領(lǐng)域已不再是搖擺產(chǎn)油者，歐佩克已重新成為石油供應(yīng)基本面的最重要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。

“頁(yè)巖被認(rèn)為是一個(gè)搖擺不定的生產(chǎn)者，沙特和歐佩克一直在等待。現(xiàn)在，歐佩克真正回到了駕駛員的位置，他們是搖擺生產(chǎn)者。”美國(guó)赫斯公司首席執(zhí)行官約翰·赫斯11月份在邁阿密的一次會(huì)議上如是表示。

在2020年被自然資源公司收購(gòu)的Parsley能源公司的創(chuàng)始人布萊恩·謝菲爾德上周對(duì)路透社表示：“頁(yè)巖不能再成為一個(gè)搖擺生產(chǎn)者了。”

北達(dá)科他州礦產(chǎn)資源部主任林恩·赫爾姆斯10月份表示，“該州有數(shù)萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位，但申請(qǐng)者并不多。進(jìn)入2023年，我們將面臨嚴(yán)重的勞動(dòng)力短缺，而且這種情況將持續(xù)下去。”  

在達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行第三季度能源調(diào)查中，石油和天然氣高管指出，成本、服務(wù)和供應(yīng)的可獲得性是限制擴(kuò)產(chǎn)的關(guān)鍵因素。

“供應(yīng)成本大幅增加和交貨等待時(shí)間大幅延長(zhǎng)”，一家勘探和生產(chǎn)公司的高管表示。另一位高管指出，“石油和天然氣行業(yè)活動(dòng)已經(jīng)停滯不前。我們應(yīng)該鼓勵(lì)設(shè)備和材料制造商和供應(yīng)商增加供應(yīng)。”

這位高管補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)：“持續(xù)兩位數(shù)的通脹不是一個(gè)健康行業(yè)的解決方案，項(xiàng)目正變得日益不經(jīng)濟(jì)。”

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Growth To Disappoint In 2023

·     EIA: U.S. oil production hit nearly 12.3 million bpd in September.

·     Although output is growing, the pace is half the growth rate seen in the rebound after the 2015-2016 oil price slump.

·     Cost inflation and a worker shortage continue to weigh on growth.

Despite the fact that U.S. crude oil production has recently hit the highest level since the pandemic low of below 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2022, the growth rate has markedly slowed this year as the shale patch struggles, labor shortages, supply chain delays, and the high cost of supplies while producers focus on returns instead of drilling. U.S. oil production hit nearly 12.3 million bpd in September, the latest month with comprehensive data published by the EIA in its Petroleum Supply Monthly report last week. Between January and September, daily U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.733 million bpd, and 11.7 million bpd is the administration’s current projection for average U.S. crude oil production for this year. 

Although output is growing, the pace is half the growth rate seen in the rebound after the 2015-2016 oil price slump when American oil production in 2018 and 2019 soared by 1 million bpd—and even more—per year.  

Those days of surging growth rates may be gone forever as producers continue to prioritize payouts over drilling, while cost inflation and supply chain issues hold back even those who are willing to boost output.  

The September production was much higher than the 9.7 million bpd seen in May 2020, when American producers curtailed output after global and U.S. oil demand plunged at the beginning of the pandemic. 

Since then, output has grown, but not at the same pace as in 2014 or 2018-2019. 

So far this year, U.S. oil production has risen at an annual rate of around 600,000 bpd-700,000 bpd, according to EIA data compiled by Reuters market analyst John Kemp. That’s less than half the growth rate just before and after the 2015-2016 oil price crash.  

The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 11.7 million bpd in 2022 and 12.4 million bpd in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019, per the November Short-Term Energy Outlook.  

Despite the expectation of a record output next year, the EIA has downgraded the numbers several times in 2022 so far. The latest cut is a massive 21% reduction in the growth estimate, according to calculations by Reuters.

In the October forecast, the EIA had already downgraded the average production estimate for 2023 to 12.4 million bpd from the September forecast of 12.6 million bpd.

Some shale executives say activity has flatlined. Others note that the U.S. shale patch is no longer the swing oil producer and OPEC has returned as the most important driver of oil supply fundamentals. 

“Shale was thought of as a swing producer, the Saudis and OPEC have waited this out. Now, really OPEC is back in the driver’s seat where they are the swing producer,” Hess Corp CEO John Hess said at a conference in Miami last month.

“Shale can’t come back to become a swing producer,” Bryan Sheffield, the founder of Parsley Energy which was bought by Pioneer Natural Resources in 2020, told Reuters last week. 

Lynn Helms, Director of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources, said in October, “There are tens of thousands of jobs open in the state and not very many applicants. We’re going to go into 2023 with a serious workforce shortage and that’s going to continue.”

In the Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q3, oil and gas executives cited costs and the availability of services and supplies as key constraints to expansion. 

“The cost of supplies and wait times for delivery have increased substantially,” an executive from an exploration and production firm said, while another noted that “Oil and gas industry activity has flatlined. We should incentivize equipment and material manufacturers and suppliers to increase supplies.”

“Sustained double-digit inflation is not the solution for a healthy industry, and projects are becoming uneconomical,” the executive added.