據(jù)彭博新聞社2023年7月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于原油供應(yīng)中斷令現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)收緊，全球基準(zhǔn)原油布倫特原油價(jià)格當(dāng)天報(bào)收于11周高位。

加拿大帝國(guó)商業(yè)銀行私人財(cái)管部門(mén)高級(jí)能源交易員麗貝卡·巴賓表示：“由于市場(chǎng)最近從供應(yīng)過(guò)剩轉(zhuǎn)為供應(yīng)不足，這一事件正獲得更多關(guān)注。”“宏觀背景有所改善，使得每一桶原油都變得很重要。”

原油價(jià)格最近突破了100日移動(dòng)均線等關(guān)鍵技術(shù)位，突破了兩個(gè)月來(lái)一直處于的窄幅交易區(qū)間。目前，交易商正密切關(guān)注原油期貨是否會(huì)突破200日移動(dòng)均線——布倫特原油每桶約82.50美元，西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油約為每桶約77.30美元——這可能引發(fā)更多買(mǎi)盤(pán)。

美國(guó)通脹走軟也支撐了大宗商品價(jià)格。通脹走軟促使人們對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(FED)的加息周期可能即將結(jié)束感到樂(lè)觀。

盡管IEA表示，由于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)步履蹣跚，今年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)速度不會(huì)像此前預(yù)期那么快，但I(xiàn)EA仍預(yù)計(jì)今年全球石油需求將創(chuàng)歷史新高。在另一份報(bào)告中，歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)明年全球石油市場(chǎng)將更加緊張，歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)需求增長(zhǎng)數(shù)值將比其他主要預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)大得多。

盡管交易商繼續(xù)關(guān)注西方經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的跡象——即便是在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景好轉(zhuǎn)之際——同時(shí)等待經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇提速，原油價(jià)格今年仍在下跌。歐佩克+產(chǎn)油大國(guó)正在減產(chǎn)以支撐市場(chǎng)。主打產(chǎn)品烏拉爾原油價(jià)格突破了七國(guó)集團(tuán)設(shè)定的價(jià)格上限。

價(jià)格： 

西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油8月期貨上漲1.14美元，至每桶76.89美元。

布倫特原油9月結(jié)算價(jià)上漲1.25美元，報(bào)收于每桶81.36美元。

李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Supply Outages Drive Oil Prices to 11 Week High

Global benchmark Brent settled at an 11-week high as supply outages tightened the physical market. 

Libya’s second-biggest oil field is in the process of shutting amid protests there. The outage of the roughly 250,000 barrel-a-day Sharara field follows disruptions at the country’s El Feel area and Nigeria’s Forcados oil terminal.

“This event is garnering heightened attention as the market has recently inflected from a surplus to a deficit,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “The macro backdrop has improved, making every barrel important.”

Prices recently pierced key technical levels such as the 100-day moving average, breaking out of the tight trading range they’ve been stuck in for two months after. Now traders are keeping a close watch on whether futures will cross above their 200-day moving averages — around $82.50 for Brent and $77.30 for WTI — which could trigger more buying.

Softening US inflation, which has prompted some optimism that the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, is also supporting the commodity. 

While the International Energy Agency said global oil demand won’t grow as fast as previously expected this year due to the faltering economies of developed nations, the agency still sees record demand this year. In a separate report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted an even tighter global oil market next year, as the group anticipates a much bigger demand increase than other major forecasters.

Crude is nevertheless down this year as traders continue to watch for signs of recession in the west — even amid the improving US outlook — while waiting for the recovery to pick up. OPEC+ heavyweights are removing barrels to prop up the market，its flagship Urals crude has breached a price cap set by the Group of Seven, a possible economic win for Moscow.

Prices:

WTI for August delivery settled $1.14 higher to $76.89 a barrel.

Brent for September settlement rose $1.25 to close at $81.36 a barrel.