據(jù)彭博社2023年8月9日報道，美國政府的一項最新預(yù)測顯示，今年美國原油產(chǎn)量的增長速度將快于此前預(yù)期，這將為因沙特阿拉伯減產(chǎn)而緊張的石油市場提供額外原油供應(yīng)。

根據(jù)美國能源信息署（EIA）周二發(fā)布的月度報告，高于預(yù)期的單井產(chǎn)能和不斷上漲的原油價格，將幫助美國在今年將原油日產(chǎn)量從之前預(yù)測的1260萬桶提高到歷史新高的1280萬桶。去年，美國原油平均日產(chǎn)量約為1190萬桶。

在歐佩克+為支撐油價而減產(chǎn)后，美國額外原油產(chǎn)量將有助于緩解供不應(yīng)求的市場。歐佩克實際領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沙特阿拉伯最近將其再減少100萬桶原油日產(chǎn)量的協(xié)議延長了一個月，使之原油產(chǎn)量降至多年來的最低水平。

明年美國和全球的原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計都將進一步增加。EIA表示，2024年，全球原油日產(chǎn)量將增加到1.03億桶，比今年日增170萬桶。其中超過70%的增長預(yù)計將來自非歐佩克國家，以美國、巴西、加拿大、圭亞那和挪威為首。EIA表示，明年美國的原油日產(chǎn)量將攀升至1310萬桶。

與此同時，EIA表示，美國今年的成品油消費量將低于此前的預(yù)期。由于美國航空旅行熱潮開始失去動力，美國第三季度的航空燃料使用量將比之前的預(yù)測減少4%。EIA對美國今年第三季度和全年汽油和柴油消費量的預(yù)測也進行了下調(diào)。

盡管如此，由于天然氣液體使用量的增加，EIA對美國今年原油總需求的預(yù)測有所上調(diào)。

李峻 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

USA Oil Output to Hit Record This Year

US oil production this year will rise faster than previously expected, providing additional crude supplies to a market that has tightened because of Saudi Arabian output cuts, according to a new government forecast.

Higher-than-expected well productivity and rising crude prices will help boost US production to a record 12.8 million barrels a day in 2023, up from a previous forecast of 12.6 million, according to a monthly report from the US Energy Information Administration released Tuesday. The US averaged about 11.9 million barrels a day in 2022.

The additional US production would help supply a market that has tightened after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies cut output to prop up prices. Cartel leader Saudi Arabia recently extended its 1 million barrel per day production cuts for another month, sending its output to the lowest in years.

Production in both the US and globally is forecast to increase further next year. World output will grow to 103 million barrels a day in 2024, up 1.7 million barrels per day from this year, the EIA said. Over 70% of that growth is expected to come from non-OPEC countries, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway. US output will climb to 13.1 million barrels a day next year, the agency said.

Meanwhile, US consumption of refined products this year will be lower than previously expected, the EIA said. The country will use 4% less jet fuel in the third quarter than in its prior forecast as the US air travel boom starts to lose steam. The agency’s forecasts for gasoline and diesel consumption also were adjusted lower for both the third quarter and full year. 

Still, the EIA’s forecast for total oil demand in the US this year was increased because of the growing use of natural gas liquids.