據阿拉伯貿易通訊社2021年5月21日迪拜報道，日本三菱日聯金融 （MUFG）日前在一份新報告中稱，今年第二季度油價預計將達到每桶77美元，油價在夏季將保持在每桶70美元。

　　MUFG預計，未來6個月全球石油需求將增加，原因是疫苗接種和人員流動趨勢對新冠肺炎疫情浪潮的抵抗力越來越強。

　　MUFG在其最新的《石油市場周刊》中表示：“在今年第四季度之后，我們預計油價將逐漸回歸石油行業的均衡價格，我們認為油價將以目前接近長期邊際生產成本的錨點為中心，布倫特原油價格將維持在55-65美元/桶左右。”

　　MUFG說：“我們繼續看漲油價，并在未來一周尋找需求強勁、庫存下降、溢價上升以及現貨溢價更大的遠期曲線的進一步證據。”

　　李峻 編譯自 阿拉伯貿易通訊社

　　原文如下：

　　Oil prices likely to reach $77 in Q2: MUFG

　　Oil prices are expected to reach $77 per barrel (/b) in the second quarter (Q2) of the year and remain in the 70s over the summer, said the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a Japanese financial services company in a new report.

　　MUFG expects a ramp-up in global oil demand in the next six months, owing to both vaccines and mobility trends increasingly becoming more resilient to virus waves.

　　“Thereafter in Q4, we see oil prices gradually regressing back towards the equilibrium price for the oil industry, which we view as being centred on the current anchor near the long-term marginal cost of production and support of about $55-65/b for Brent,” MUFG said in its latest Oil Market Weekly.

　　Oil prices have edged slightly lower this week with investors increasingly pricing in some prospects that Iran will resume oil exports on a large scale following a potential diplomatic breakthrough where the US and Iran return to the terms of the nuclear agreement.

　　“ We continue to remain bullish and for the week ahead look for further evidence of demand strength, falling inventories, rising premiums and the forward curve in steeper backwardation,” the MUFG report said.

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