據(jù)阿納多盧新聞6月11日消息稱，全球能源咨詢公司W(wǎng)ood Mackenzie周三表示，假設(shè)到2030年每兆瓦時電價為30美元，到2028年至2033年，綠色氫將能夠與化石燃料競爭。
Wood Mackenzie 的首席分析師 Ben Gallagher表示，在過去18個月里，一個日益活躍的低碳氫市場見證了政府的支持、企業(yè)的承諾、已宣布的項目，甚至旁觀者的興趣。
他說，這項活動相當(dāng)于一種范式轉(zhuǎn)變，將使用可再生能源電解水產(chǎn)生的綠色氫成為能源轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵要素。
Gallagher說，越來越多的關(guān)注凈零目標(biāo)有利于綠色氫。
Gallagher指出：“去年我們看到了全球脫碳的決定性支點，這對零碳技術(shù)是非常積極的。” 日本、韓國和加拿大最近宣布的凈零減排目標(biāo)，以及美國對《巴黎協(xié)定》的重新承諾，表明應(yīng)對全球變暖的政策勢頭現(xiàn)在勢不可擋。
由于綠色氫是一個主要受益者，Gallagher說電解低碳生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)在占整個氫管道的67%。
Gallagher表示，歐盟去年宣布的綠色復(fù)蘇一攬子計劃專門撥出1500億歐元用于綠色氫。
他說:“這一財政承諾伴隨著電解槽產(chǎn)能的具體目標(biāo)——在2020年至2024年期間，第一階段裝機容量為6吉瓦，到2030年第二階段裝機容量為40吉瓦。”
Gallagher說，直接的結(jié)果是，歐洲目前正在推動增長，占整個低碳氫管道的79%。然而，他警告說，這種主導(dǎo)地位將是暫時的，因為包括日本、韓國和加拿大在內(nèi)的17個國家已經(jīng)宣布了一項氫戰(zhàn)略、路線圖或愿景，與全球走向凈零目標(biāo)的趨勢一致。
他說，在2020年第二和第三季度的大流行相關(guān)投資下降之后，低碳氫的投資再次上升，僅2021年第一季度在氫市場的投資就至少達到45億美元，并宣布了55個項目。
制造能夠大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)綠色氫氣的更大電解槽的能力是實現(xiàn)該行業(yè)快速擴張的關(guān)鍵因素。
Gallagher表示，在降低成本方面，這也具有通常的規(guī)模優(yōu)勢。“我們自己的估計是，假設(shè)2030年的電價為30美元/兆瓦時，到2028年至2033年，綠色氫將與化石燃料競爭。”
朱佳妮 摘譯自 阿納多盧新聞
原文如下：
Green hydrogen to be cost competitive with fossil fuels up to 2033
Green hydrogen will be able to compete with fossil fuels by 2028 to 2033, assuming a $30 per megawatt-hour power price in 2030, global energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said Wednesday.
An increasingly dynamic low-carbon hydrogen market has seen a deluge of government support, corporate commitments, announced projects, and even bystander intrigue over the past 18 months, said Ben Gallagher, a lead analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
This activity amounts to a paradigm shift that will see green hydrogen, created from the electrolysis of water using renewable energy, emerge as a key element of the energy transition, he said.
Gallagher said a growing focus on net-zero targets favors green hydrogen.
"The last year has seen a decisive pivot towards decarbonization globally which is extremely positive for zero-carbon technologies," Gallagher noted, adding that recent announcements of net-zero targets from Japan, South Korea and Canada, along with the US recommitting to the Paris Agreement, show policy momentum to tackle global warming is now unstoppable.
As green hydrogen is a key beneficiary, Gallagher said electrolysis-based low-carbon production now makes up 67% of the overall pipeline for hydrogen.
Gallagher said the EU’s Green Recovery Package announced last year specifically earmarked €150 billion for green hydrogen.
"This financial commitment was accompanied by specific targets for electrolyser capacity – 6 GW [gigawatts] in the first phase between 2020 and 2024, with 40 GW to be installed by the end of the second phase in 2030," he said.
As a direct result, Europe is currently driving growth, representing 79% of the overall low-carbon hydrogen pipeline, Gallagher said. However, he cautioned that such dominance would be temporary, as 17 countries, including Japan, South Korea and Canada, have announced a hydrogen strategy, roadmap, or vision in line with the global trend towards net-zero targets.
After a pandemic-related dip in the second and third quarters of 2020, investment in low-carbon hydrogen is once again on the up with at least $4.5 billion invested in the hydrogen market in the first quarter of 2021 alone, with 55 projects announced, he said.
The ability to manufacture ever-larger electrolyzers that can produce green hydrogen at scale is a key factor in enabling the rapid expansion of the sector.
Gallagher said this also has the usual benefits of scale in terms of bringing down costs. “Our own estimates are that green hydrogen will be competitive with fossil fuels by 2028 to 2033, assuming a US$30/MWh power price in 2030.”
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