據(jù)6月21日Rigzone消息：美國銀行表示，隨著旅行需求回升，明年油價(jià)可能飆升至每桶100美元，這是迄今為止各大預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu)對油價(jià)回歸三位數(shù)的最強(qiáng)烈呼吁。

　　世界銀行在一份報(bào)告中表示，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)從大流行中復(fù)蘇，燃料消耗量增加，全球石油消費(fèi)將在2022年繼續(xù)供過于求，而對新生產(chǎn)的投資因環(huán)境問題而受到抑制。

　　該行駐紐約的大宗商品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示:“有大量被壓抑的石油需求準(zhǔn)備釋放。”布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格周一接近每桶74美元。

　　雖然從貿(mào)易公司托克集團(tuán)到高盛集團(tuán)等其他市場觀察人士已經(jīng)表示，在合適的條件下，油價(jià)可能會再次達(dá)到100美元，但美國銀行的預(yù)測是迄今為止最堅(jiān)定的。

　　如果原油價(jià)格真的回到三位數(shù)，這將是自2014年以來的第一次，當(dāng)時(shí)北美頁巖油泛濫導(dǎo)致市場陷入暴跌，至今未能完全恢復(fù)。

　　日益看漲的石油前景給沙特和俄羅斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟增加了壓力，該聯(lián)盟將于下周開會，考慮恢復(fù)疫情期間減產(chǎn)的部分產(chǎn)量。

　　汽車旅行

　　據(jù)美洲銀行稱，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的近期前景是光明的。

　　由于公共交通難以跟上額外的旅行需求，促使乘客更多地使用私家車，明年石油消費(fèi)將得到提振。

　　該行表示，即使是遠(yuǎn)程工作的持續(xù)普及也不會像預(yù)期那樣減少油耗，因?yàn)樵诩肄k公的人白天開車去處理個(gè)人事務(wù)。

　　Blanch表示，在很多情況下，從家工作意味著‘開車上班’。

　　與此同時(shí)，世界銀行預(yù)計(jì)新的石油供應(yīng)仍將受到限制。股東將迫使大公司投資可再生能源，或推動頁巖鉆探商返還現(xiàn)金，而不是將資金用于新的鉆探。

　　盡管如此，人們對2022年市場吃緊的預(yù)期遠(yuǎn)非一致。國際能源署本月早些時(shí)候的一份報(bào)告顯示，預(yù)計(jì)需求增長的一半可以通過恢復(fù)歐佩克以外的產(chǎn)量來滿足，主要來自美國。

　　馮娟 摘譯自 Rigzone

　　原文如下：

　　BofA Says Oil May Hit $100 Next Year

　　Oil may surge to $100 a barrel next year as travel demand rebounds, Bank of America Corp. said, the strongest call yet among major forecasters for a return to triple digits.

　　Global oil consumption will continue to outstrip supply in 2022 as the economic recovery from the pandemic boosts fuel consumption, while investment in new production is crimped by environmental concerns, the bank said in a report.

　　“There is plenty of pent-up oil demand ready to be unleashed,” said Francisco Blanch, the bank’s New York-based head of commodities research. Brent futures traded near $74 a barrel on Monday.

　　While other market-watchers, from trading house Trafigura Group to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., have already said that oil could reach $100 again in the right conditions, the prediction from Bank of America is the firmest to date.

　　If crude does return to triple digits, it will be the first time since 2014, before a flood of North American shale oil sent the market into a slump from which it has never fully recovered.

　　The increasingly bullish outlook for oil is adding to pressure on the OPEC+ coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which meets next week to consider reviving some more of the production it cut during the pandemic.

　　While Riyadh has signaled it prefers to move cautiously, an ever-tighter world market could compel the alliance to open the taps a little. Prices have been stoked this month as fellow OPEC member Iran fails to clinch an agreement to relieve U.S. sanctions on its petroleum exports.

　　Car Travel

　　According to Bank of America, the immediate prospects for the OPEC+ alliance are bright.

　　Oil consumption will be bolstered next year as mass transit struggles to keep pace with extra travel demand, prompting passengers to make greater use of private cars.

　　Even the ongoing popularity of remote working won’t dent fuel consumption as much as expected, as home-workers use cars during the day to run personal errands, the bank said.

　　“Work-from-home means ‘work-from-car’ in many cases,” Blanch said.

　　At the same time, the bank expects that new oil supplies will remain constrained. Shareholders will pressure major companies to invest in renewable energy, or push shale drillers to return cash rather than spend on new drilling.

　　Still, expectations for a tight market in 2022 are far from unanimous. A report from the International Energy Agency earlier this month showed that half of the projected increase in demand can be met by recovering output outside OPEC, predominantly from the U.S.

　　That would leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners with significant quantities of idle output -- and even more if Iran can strike a nuclear accord with the U.S. by then.

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