據(jù)路透社7月7日消息，鑒于油價(jià)接近多年高位，歐佩克突然出現(xiàn)的混亂似乎是美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商鎖定利潤(rùn)的機(jī)會(huì)，但這些公司的消息人士表示，他們不會(huì)冒著市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商以在油價(jià)飆升時(shí)提高產(chǎn)量而聞名。然而，今年迄今為止，盡管油價(jià)飆升至每桶70美元以上，頁(yè)巖行業(yè)仍明顯受到限制。在向投資者承諾將堅(jiān)持支出以提高回報(bào)后，他們一直保持較低的生產(chǎn)水平。
油價(jià)已超過(guò)每桶73美元，接近三年來(lái)的高點(diǎn)。周一，歐佩克及其盟國(guó)未能就恢復(fù)供應(yīng)市場(chǎng)達(dá)成協(xié)議。這可能會(huì)推高油價(jià)，不過(guò)周二油價(jià)下跌，因投資者擔(dān)心，如果沒(méi)有達(dá)成協(xié)議，歐佩克+成員國(guó)可能會(huì)打開(kāi)產(chǎn)量限制，這將給油價(jià)帶來(lái)壓力。
頁(yè)巖油公司今年一直在積極對(duì)沖，以鎖定價(jià)格，在油價(jià)下跌時(shí)保護(hù)利潤(rùn)。
然而，對(duì)沖可能代價(jià)高昂，如果油價(jià)上漲至生產(chǎn)商鎖定的水平，就會(huì)導(dǎo)致資產(chǎn)減記。咨詢公司伍德麥肯錫追蹤的53家石油生產(chǎn)商第一季度在對(duì)沖合約上總計(jì)損失了32億美元。
根據(jù)該公司的數(shù)據(jù)，在2021年進(jìn)行石油對(duì)沖的40家運(yùn)營(yíng)商中，只有12家的平均對(duì)沖價(jià)格高于50美元/桶。
一位頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商高管表示:“每家銀行都稱油價(jià)將在90美元至100美元之間，現(xiàn)在沒(méi)有人打算進(jìn)行對(duì)沖。”
伍德麥肯錫追蹤的這一集團(tuán)對(duì)沖了約32%的2021年預(yù)期產(chǎn)量，低于一年前同期。該公司表示，生產(chǎn)商更有可能保持2021年剩余產(chǎn)量不進(jìn)行對(duì)沖，以當(dāng)前價(jià)格出售，并將對(duì)沖重點(diǎn)放在2022年。頁(yè)巖油公司也承諾保持產(chǎn)量不變，提高投資者回報(bào)，而不是開(kāi)采更多的原油。
伍德麥肯錫的首席分析師亞歷克斯?比克表示“我沒(méi)有看到任何來(lái)自這些生產(chǎn)商的信號(hào)，表明他們會(huì)在短期內(nèi)增加產(chǎn)量……你可以增加對(duì)沖，但這并不一定意味著你明年會(huì)增加產(chǎn)量。”
分析師表示，股東要求提高回報(bào)的壓力使本輪周期有所不同。
石油分析師Paul Sankey表示，對(duì)沖為生產(chǎn)商提供了一種規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方式，但"這不是股東想要的"。他說(shuō)，將資金投入石油生產(chǎn)商的投資者希望獲得更高的油價(jià)敞口。
另一家頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商的一位高管表示，由于他們已承諾不擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)量，因此在進(jìn)行更多對(duì)沖之前，它們首先需要讓投資者參與該計(jì)劃。對(duì)沖可以為增加產(chǎn)出提供必要的資金。
他表示：“對(duì)我們這些公共生產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)，一切都需要時(shí)間。”
裘寅 編譯自 路透社
原文如下：
U.S. shale firms hesitate to pump - or hedge - more, despite oil high prices
OPEC's sudden disarray would seem to be an opportunity for U.S. shale producers to lock in profits, with oil prices near multi-year-highs, but sources at those companies say they are not taking chances with the market's volatility.
Shale producers are famous for boosting output whenever oil prices surge. However, the shale industry has been notably restrained so far this year even as oil surged past $70 a barrel. They have maintained a lower level of production after vowing to investors that they would hold the line on spending to boost returns.
Oil prices , are above $73 a barrel, near three-year-highs. On Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, were unable to reach an agreement on returning supply to the market. That could push oil higher, though on Tuesday prices fell with investors worried that without an agreement, OPEC+ members could open the taps, which would pressure prices.
Shale companies have been actively hedging this year, to lock in prices that protect profits if prices slump.
Yet hedges can be costly, prompting writedowns if oil prices rally past levels producers have locked in. A group of 53 oil producers tracked by consultancy Wood Mackenzie have combined losses of $3.2 billion in the first quarter on hedge contracts.
Just 12 of 40 operators with 2021 oil hedges had an average hedge price above $50 a barrel, according to the firm.
"With every bank saying that oil will be at $90-$100, no one is going to put hedges on right now," said an executive at a shale oil producer, who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity.
The group tracked by WoodMac has hedged about 32% of expected 2021 production volumes, less than at the same time a year ago. WoodMac said producers were more likely to keep their remaining 2021 production unhedged, sell at the current prices, and focus their hedges on 2022 instead. Shale firms also have pledged to keep production flat, boosting investor returns rather than pumping more crude.
"I don't see any signals from any of these producers that they are going to grow production anytime soon ... you could be adding hedges but it doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to grow production next year," said Alex Beeker, a principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Shareholder pressure to increase returns make this cycle different, analysts said.
Hedging provides a way for producers to avoid risk, but "that is not what shareholders want," said oil analyst Paul Sankey. Investors who are putting money into producers want exposure to higher oil prices, he said.
Companies would first need to get investors on board with the plan before hedging more since they have pledged not to expand production, an executive at another shale producer said. Hedging can provide the financial wherewithal to increase output.
"For us public producers, everything takes time," he said.
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