據(jù)世界石油2021年8月3日?qǐng)?bào)道，二疊紀(jì)盆地是美國(guó)最大的產(chǎn)油盆地，在COVID-19大流行期間是美國(guó)受影響最嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)。然而，全球領(lǐng)先的數(shù)據(jù)和分析公司GlobalData表示，隨著市場(chǎng)從Covid-19疫情中復(fù)蘇，到2022年前，二疊紀(jì)盆地的原油和天然氣產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)超過(guò)疫情前的水平。
根據(jù)GlobalData的題為“美國(guó)二疊紀(jì)盆地2021年——石油和天然氣頁(yè)巖市場(chǎng)分析和2025年展望”的最新報(bào)告，二疊紀(jì)盆地目前每天將生產(chǎn)460萬(wàn)桶石油，預(yù)計(jì)在2022年中期前將超過(guò)490萬(wàn)桶/天，屆時(shí)將超過(guò)2020年2月新冠肺炎疫情大流行前達(dá)到的480萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量。
GlobalData油氣分析師Svetlana Doh評(píng)論道：“二疊紀(jì)盆地的產(chǎn)量在2019年12月達(dá)到了峰值，并在2020年第一季度繼續(xù)上升。然而，自那以后，由于新冠肺炎疫情引發(fā)的全球‘需求崩潰’，二疊紀(jì)盆地的產(chǎn)量開(kāi)始逐漸減少。今年上半年限制和旅行禁令的放松改善了需求前景，促進(jìn)了二疊紀(jì)盆地的生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)。”
然而，隨著穩(wěn)定的生產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)和積極的投資前景，預(yù)計(jì)在完全恢復(fù)后，二疊紀(jì)盆地的產(chǎn)量將在2022年前達(dá)到大流行前的水平。
Doh女士總結(jié)道，盡管西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)價(jià)格已反彈至疫情前的水平，但在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)仍在緩慢追趕。去年8月，二疊紀(jì)盆地的在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)降至117部，為歷史最低點(diǎn)。自去年9月以來(lái)，二疊紀(jì)盆地的在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)緩慢增長(zhǎng)，增長(zhǎng)了約7%。截至今年6月，二疊紀(jì)盆地共有235部鉆機(jī)在作業(yè)，而一年前的6月只有135部鉆機(jī)在作業(yè)。GlobalData預(yù)計(jì)，油氣公司將重新關(guān)注其在二疊紀(jì)盆地的核心資產(chǎn)，并加大鉆井和完井活動(dòng)。
李峻 編譯自 世界石油
原文如下：
Analyst sees Permian basin output fully recover from COVID shutdown by 2022
The Permian basin, the largest oil producing basin in the US, was the most affected play in the country during the COVID-19 pandemic times. However, production of crude oil and natural gas from this play is likely to exceed the pre-pandemic levels by 2022 amid market recovery from the pandemic, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
According to GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Permian Basin in the US, 2021 – Oil and Gas Shale Market Analysis and Outlook to 2025’, the Permian Basin is producing about 4.6 million barrels of oil per day (mmbd) at present and is projected to reach over 4.9 mmbd of crude oil production by mid-2022, which surpasses pre-pandemic production of 4.8 mmbd in February 2020.
Svetlana Doh, Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Production in the Permian Basin peaked in December 2019 and the upswing continued during Q1 2020. Since then, however, it started tapering off due to the global ‘demand crash’ caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. The ease of restrictions and travel bans during H1 2021 have improved the demand prospects, encouraging production activities in the basin.”
However, steady production growth along with positive investment outlook has set the expectation of production reaching to the pre-pandemic levels by 2022 after recovering completely.
Ms Doh concludes: “Despite West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price rebounding to the pre-pandemic levels, rigs are still slow in catching up. Permian Basin rig count dropped to its lowest point in August 2020 at 117 rigs. Since September 2020, the basin has seen a slow increase in rig count, about 7%. As of June 2021, there were 235 rigs operating in the Permian Basin compared to only 135 rigs a year ago in June 2020. GlobalData expects oil and gas companies to refocus on their core assets in the Permian Basin and ramp up the drilling and completion activities.
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