? 美國去年第四季度石油產量增長加快。
? 美國石油行業較高的資本支出很大一部分是由于成本膨脹。
? 盡管成本上漲，但大型油服公司仍樂觀地認為，行業多年的上升周期已經開始。
據美國油價網報道，今年美國石油生產商將增加資本支出和活動，但隨著成本壓力加劇，美國石油生產商將不得不應對通脹飆升。
達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行去年第四季度進行的能源調查的結果顯示，盡管第四季度石油產量增加加快，但油服公司的成本連續第三個季度大幅飆升，創下歷史新高，“這暗示了油服公司面臨巨大的成本壓力”。
今年，美國石油行業較高的資本支出將部分歸因于成本膨脹。 這將不是增加支出中最大的一部分，但與前兩年的節儉支出相比，今年的總體資本支出將有所增加。
由于許多已開鉆但未完鉆(DUC)的井在去年全年都已耗盡，各公司在DUC井庫存耗盡之前基本上都沒有開鉆新井，因此該行業將不得不在今年加大鉆井投入。
能源經濟和金融分析研究所(IEEFA)石油和天然氣分析師雷·考恩和能源金融分析師克拉克·威廉姆斯-德里警告說，“僅僅為了維持與去年相同的產量水平，把快速成本膨脹加進來，資本支出可能會增加近20%。”
成本壓力
考恩和威廉姆斯-德里指出：“這些成本增加將首先落在油服公司身上，油服公司可能無法將成本轉嫁給生產商。”
達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行的調查結果顯示，72.1%的油氣支持服務公司報告第四季度投入成本增加，而只有2.3%的公司報告投入成本下降。 與此同時，調查中65.1%的油服公司的服務價格保持不變。
IEEFA的分析師表示，這些油田服務公司可能會承擔不成比例的成本增長份額。
挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）在去年11月發表的一份分析報告中表示：“勘探和生產公司普遍認為，今年的井成本通漲幅度可能在5%-15%之間，根據運營商的關注點和可用服務提供商的情況，今年還有很多需要注意的地方。”
IEEFA表示：“在不同的運營商中，鋼鐵、勞動力和燃料都被列為今年特別關注的領域，這將是井成本上升的最大原因。”
然而，許多勘探和生產公司都指出，持續的效率提高可能會抵消成本上升。
雪佛龍公司首席財務官皮埃爾·布列柏在日前舉行的收益電話會議上表示：“我們將繼續管理我們的成本，我們認為，在二疊紀盆地和我們的投資組合中，我們的成本管理得非常好。 我們在去年12月公布的資本預算中，預計銷貨成本會有一些增長，增幅為低的個位數。”雪佛龍公司首席執行官邁克·沃思在電話中指出，“在二疊紀盆地，我們可能會看到成本多一些，這是非常可控的，我們認為我們可以用效率來抵消它。與去年相比，今年雪佛龍公司在二疊紀盆地的產量將增長大約10%。”
資本支出和產量增加
埃克森美孚公司首席執行官達倫·伍茲日前表示，從2020年到2021年，該公司二疊紀盆地的油氣產量增加了25%以上，并補充道：“我們預計，今年二疊紀盆地的油氣產量將再增加25%。”
埃克森美孚公司去年在二疊紀盆地的油氣日產量增加了近10萬桶油當量，達到了大約46萬桶油當量。
計劃提高美國頁巖盆地核心資產油氣產量的公司不僅僅是埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龍公司。
根據達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行的調查，44%的高管表示，他們預計今年的資本支出將小幅增加，另有31%的高管預計今年的資本支出將比去年大幅增加。
在去年12月進行的調查中，88家勘探和生產公司中有49%的公司將“增產”作為今年的主要目標。
然而，油氣日產量低于1萬桶的小型公司更傾向于提高產量，而只有24%的大型勘探和生產公司將這一提高產量目標作為首要目標。 調查顯示，小企業最常選擇的回答是“增加產量”，而大企業最常選擇的回答是“減少債務”。
盡管面臨成本壓力，但頂級油服提供商仍保持樂觀
盡管成本上升，但一些大型油服公司仍然樂觀地認為，油田服務行業多年的上升周期已經開始。
以美國最大的頁巖領域服務提供商哈里伯頓公司為例，哈里伯頓公司董事長兼首席執行官杰夫·米勒表示，“盡管存在通脹壓力，但由于油服活動改善，該公司的完井和生產部門在去年結束時的營業利潤率為15%。”
米勒在1月份曾表示，“我對這種持續多年的上升周期感到興奮。 我預計宏觀行業環境將保持支持性，國際和北美市場將繼續同步增長。”
斯倫貝謝公司首席執行官奧利維爾·勒·佩奇在1月份的收益電話會議上表示，今年通貨膨脹將更為嚴重，而且在某些盆地的某些地區更為明顯，但這是一種市場狀況，也是“我們一直要面對的問題”。
佩奇補充說，“進入2022年，更具體地說，我們預計在北美的資本支出將增加至少20%，這將影響陸上和海上市場，而在國際上，資本支出預計將處于低到中等程度的增加。”
盡管頁巖探區正在提高資本支出和產量，但它還必須應對成本上升的問題，如果不能被效率提高所抵消，那么成本上升可能消耗掉那些在去年享有創紀錄現金流的生產商的今年利潤率。
李峻 編譯自 美國油價網
原文如下：
The Next Big Problem For U.S. Shale
· U.S. oil production growth picked up the pace in the fourth quarter.
· A big part of the higher capital spending in the U.S. oil industry will be because of cost inflation.
· Despite cost inflation, the largest oilfield service firms are optimistic that a multi-year upcycle in the industry has begun.
U.S. oil producers are raising capital spending and activity this year, but they have to contend with surging inflation as cost pressures intensify.
While oil production growth picked up the pace in the fourth quarter, costs jumped sharply for a third consecutive quarter to a record-high reading among oilfield services firms "suggestive of significant cost pressures," the Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q4 found.
In 2022, part of the higher capital spending in the U.S. oil industry will be because of cost inflation. This will not be the highest portion of the increased expenditure, but it will contribute to an overall higher capex this year compared to the previous two years of frugal spending.
As many of the drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells have been exhausted throughout 2021 when companies largely abstained from new well drilling until they go through the DUC inventory, the industry will have to spend more on drilling in 2022.
"Add rapid cost inflation into the mix, and capital spending could rise by almost 20 percent just to maintain production at the same level as last year," warned the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) oil and gas analyst Trey Cowan, and energy finance analyst Clark Williams-Derry.
Cost Pressures
"These cost increases will land first on oilfield service firms—who may not be able to pass the costs on to producers," Cowan and Williams-Derry noted.
A total of 72.1 percent of oil and gas support service firms reported an increase in input costs in Q4, compared to just 2.3 percent that reported a decrease in input costs, according to the Dallas Fed survey. At the same time, the prices received for the services remained unchanged for 65.1 percent of the oilfield service firms in the survey.
The services firms could bear a disproportionate share of the cost increases, IEEFA's analysts said.
"The general E&P consensus for well cost inflation in 2022 appears to be anywhere from 5-15%, with many caveats across the board depending on the focus of the operator and the landscape of available service providers," Rystad Energy said in an analysis in November.
"Across the various operators, steel, labor and fuel were all flagged as areas of special concern in 2022 that would contribute the most to rising well costs," the energy research firm said.
However, many E&P companies have pointed to continued efficiency gains as potential offsets to rising costs.
"We continue to manage our costs, we think, very well in the Permian and across our portfolio. Our capital budget, which we announced in December, expected some COGS increase, modest in the low single digits. And what we might be seeing a little bit more than that in the Permian, it's very manageable and we think we can offset it with efficiencies," Chevron's CFO Pierre Breber said on the earnings call last week. During the call, CEO Mike Wirth noted that Chevron's production in the Permian would rise by around 10 percent this year compared to 2021.
Capex And Production Rising
ExxonMobil, for its part, grew its Permian production from 2020 to 2021 by over 25 percent, CEO Darren Woods said this week, adding that "Our expectation, as we go into 2022, is to grow another 25%."
Exxon's 2021 production in the Permian rose by nearly 100,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day to around 460,000 boepd.
It's not only Exxon and Chevron that plan higher production in their core assets in the U.S. shale patch.
Per Dallas Fed's survey, 44 percent of executives said they expect capital spending to increase slightly, while an additional 31 percent anticipate a significant increase in capex this year compared to 2021.
A total of 49 percent of 88 E&P firms polled in the survey in December pointed to "grow production" as their primary goal in 2022.
However, small firms—those producing less than 10,000 bpd—are more inclined to boost production, while this goal was cited as primary at only 24 percent of large E&P firms. The most-selected response among small firms was "grow production," while the most-selected response among large firms was "reduce debt," the survey showed.
Top Oilfield Service Providers Upbeat Despite Cost Pressures
Despite cost inflation, the largest oilfield service firms are optimistic that a multi-year upcycle in the industry has begun.
Halliburton, for example—the top provider of services in the U.S. shale patch—saw its completion and production division finish 2021 with a 15 percent operating margin, "driven by activity improvement despite inflationary pressures," chairman and CEO Jeff Miller said.
"I am excited about the accelerating multi-year upcycle. I expect the macro industry environment to remain supportive and the international and North America markets to continue their simultaneous growth," Miller said last month.
Inflation is more acute, and it's more pronounced in some parts of some basins, but it's a market condition and "something that we always deal with," Schlumberger's CEO Olivier Le Peuch said on the earnings call in January.
"Turning to 2022, more specifically, we expect an increase in capital spending of at least 20% in North America, impacting both the onshore and offshore markets, while internationally, capital spending is projected to increase in the low-to-mid teens, building momentum from a very strong exit in the second half of 2021," Le Peuch added.
While the shale patch is raising capital spending and production, it has to contend with rising costs, which, if not offset by efficiency gains, could eat into the 2022 profit margins of the producers that enjoyed record cash flows in 2021.
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