據(jù)世界石油網(wǎng)2022年6月2日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于遺留項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)量下降，非洲油氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)正在增加數(shù)輪油氣許可證出售招標(biāo)，以穩(wěn)定未來(lái)幾年的油氣供應(yīng)，滿(mǎn)足日益增長(zhǎng)的能源需求。  

在非洲各地引入更多回合的石油和天然氣勘探和生產(chǎn)許可證出售招標(biāo)，將使非洲大陸有新的重大發(fā)現(xiàn)，增加碳?xì)浠衔锏漠a(chǎn)量，并充分利用非洲大陸的大量能源資源，以解決能源貧困和加速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。 

盡管非洲過(guò)去20年里石油和天然氣的產(chǎn)量不斷上升，但由于遺留項(xiàng)目的產(chǎn)量減少，加上近幾年來(lái)缺乏新的勘探活動(dòng)，以及尼日利亞、阿爾及利亞、安哥拉和埃及等主要油氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)的價(jià)值鏈投資不足，非洲油氣產(chǎn)量在今后幾年里預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)下降。在天然氣方面，盡管由于包括莫桑比克Coral浮式液化天然氣項(xiàng)目和尼日利亞第7條LNG生產(chǎn)線(xiàn)項(xiàng)目在內(nèi)的新項(xiàng)目即將投產(chǎn)，但非洲有足夠的LNG供應(yīng)來(lái)滿(mǎn)足全球2022年-2023年的需求，但阿爾及利亞、尼日利亞和埃及的LNG產(chǎn)量下降從2025年起將繃緊全球LNG供應(yīng)鏈。 

例如，埃及的天然氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將從2022年的740億立方米減少到2030年的500億立方米，除非有重大發(fā)現(xiàn)并迅速投產(chǎn)。另一方面，非洲石油行業(yè)的產(chǎn)量也將下降，非洲主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)之一阿爾及利亞已經(jīng)開(kāi)始記錄減產(chǎn)。非洲最大的原油生產(chǎn)國(guó)尼日利亞也將從2023年開(kāi)始減產(chǎn)，同時(shí)蘇丹、南蘇丹和其他西非國(guó)家的石油產(chǎn)量也將受到影響。

為了減緩這種產(chǎn)量下降，非洲大陸將不得不增加對(duì)上游領(lǐng)域的投資。許多非洲國(guó)家認(rèn)識(shí)到擴(kuò)大上游活動(dòng)的必要性，在新興和前沿市場(chǎng)都引入了多輪油氣勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)，為區(qū)域和國(guó)際公司參與高潛力盆地的油氣勘探活動(dòng)創(chuàng)造了機(jī)會(huì)。  

值得注意的是，突尼斯能源部去年推出的新一輪許可證出售招標(biāo)預(yù)計(jì)將在今年年內(nèi)授出4份石油勘探許可證。此外，安哥拉還通過(guò)國(guó)家石油、天然氣和生物燃料局(ANPG)在2021年對(duì)納米貝盆地的第11、12、13、27、28、29、41、42和43號(hào)區(qū)塊以及本格拉盆地的第10號(hào)區(qū)塊進(jìn)行招標(biāo)。 

此外，非洲大陸預(yù)計(jì)將在今年宣布大約14輪勘探許可正出售招標(biāo)的結(jié)果，表明非洲油氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)越來(lái)越重視增加上游領(lǐng)域的活動(dòng)。其他計(jì)劃在2022年和2023年推出油氣勘探許可證出售招標(biāo)的國(guó)家包括科特迪瓦、塞內(nèi)加爾、阿爾及利亞、剛果（金）、蘇丹、南蘇丹、索馬里、烏干達(dá)和肯尼亞。

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油氣網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Africa boosts upstream activities to amplify oil and gas production

African hydrocarbon producing countries are increasing oil and gas licensing rounds to be able to stabilize supply of hydrocarbons in years to come to meet growing energy demand as output in legacy projects declines.

The introduction of more oil and gas exploration and production licensing rounds across Africa will enable the continent to make new and significant discoveries, increase the production of hydrocarbons, as well as fully utilize the continent’s vast array of energy resources to address energy poverty and accelerate economic growth.

Although the production of oil and gas in Africa has been rising over the past two decades, declines are anticipated in the coming years due to output reductions in legacy projects, a lack of new exploration in recent years and inadequate investments across the value chain in leading hydrocarbon producing countries such as Nigeria, Algeria, Angola and Egypt. On the gas front, despite Africa having sufficient supply to meet 2022 – 2023 demand owing to new projects such as the Mozambique Coral Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Nigeria’s LNG Train 7 projects coming online, production declines in Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt will strain the supply chain from 2025 onwards. 

Egypt, for example, is expected to record a decrease in production from 74 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2022 to 50 Bcm by 2030 unless major discoveries are made and quickly brought online. On the other hand, the oil sector will also witness production declines with Algeria, one of Africa’s leading oil producers, already starting to record output reductions. Nigeria, the biggest producer of crude oil in Africa, will also record a decline from 2023 whilst production in Sudan and South Sudan and other west African countries will also be affected. 

In order for Africa to mitigate these declines, the continent will have to boost investments within the upstream sector. Recognizing the need to expand upstream activities, many countries across the continent have introduced bid licensing rounds across both emerging and frontier markets, creating the opportunity for regional and international companies to participate in high potential basins. 

Notably, a 2021 licensing round introduced by the Tunisian Ministry of Energy Ministry in which contracts are expected to be awarded in 2022 for four oil exploration licenses. Additionally, Angola, through the National Agency of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANPG) also opened bidding in 2021 for tenders in Blocks 11, 12, 13, 27, 28, 29, 41, 42 and 43 in the Namibe Basin, and in Block 10 in the Benguela Basin. 

In addition, the results of some 14 exploration licensing rounds expected to be announced in 2022 across the continent are a testimony of increased focus by African hydrocarbon producing countries to increase activities within the upstream sector. Other licensing rounds planned to be introduced in 2022 and 2023 include those in Ivory Coast, Senegal, Algeria, Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Uganda and Kenya.