據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)11月24日消息稱，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量爆炸式增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)代已經(jīng)結(jié)束。美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量正在上升，但速度比2020年石油危機(jī)之前要慢得多，也低于幾個(gè)月前的預(yù)期。

頁(yè)巖油領(lǐng)域的新重點(diǎn)——資本約束、股東回報(bào)和債務(wù)償還——加上供應(yīng)鏈約束和成本膨脹，拖累了美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)。

今年，美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署(EIA)和各種分析一直在下調(diào)他們對(duì)2022年和2023年原油產(chǎn)量的預(yù)測(cè)。盡管美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署仍預(yù)計(jì)明年的產(chǎn)量將創(chuàng)下新的年平均紀(jì)錄，但自今年年初以來(lái)，該機(jī)構(gòu)已大幅下調(diào)了預(yù)期。

根據(jù)11月發(fā)布的《短期能源展望》，美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署預(yù)計(jì)，到2022年，美國(guó)原油平均產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1170萬(wàn)桶/天，到2023年將達(dá)到1240萬(wàn)桶/天，這將超過(guò)2019年創(chuàng)下的歷史新高。

盡管預(yù)計(jì)明年的產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，但到目前為止，EIA已多次下調(diào)了2022年的數(shù)據(jù)。根據(jù)路透社的計(jì)算，最新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期大幅下調(diào)了21%。

在10月預(yù)估中，EIA已將2023年平均日產(chǎn)量預(yù)估從9月預(yù)估的1260萬(wàn)桶下調(diào)至1240萬(wàn)桶。

美國(guó)政府在10月份表示：“預(yù)測(cè)中的原油產(chǎn)量下降反映了2022年第四季度的原油價(jià)格低于我們此前的預(yù)期。”

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The U.S. Shale Boom Is Officially Over

The days of explosive growth in U.S. shale oil production are over. American oil production is rising, but at a much slower pace than it did before the 2020 crash, and at lower rates than expected a few months ago.

The new priorities of the shale patch – capital discipline and a focus on returns to shareholders and debt repayments – have coupled with supply chain constraints and cost inflation to drag down U.S. oil production growth.

This year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and various analysts have been downgrading their forecasts of crude oil production for 2022 and 2023. Although the EIA still expects output to set a new annual average record next year, it has significantly revised down its projections since the start of this year.

The EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to average 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 12.4 million bpd in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019, per the November Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Despite the expectation of a record output next year, the EIA has downgraded the numbers several times in 2022 so far. The latest cut is a massive 21% reduction in the growth estimate, according to calculations by Reuters.

In the October forecast, the EIA had already downgraded the average production estimate for 2023 to 12.4 million bpd from the September forecast of 12.6 million bpd.

“Lower crude oil production in the forecast reflects lower crude oil prices in 4Q22 than we previously expected,” the administration said in October.