據(jù)世界能源新聞網(wǎng)2023年1月31日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)天然氣期貨價(jià)格周二（1月31日）持穩(wěn)于21個(gè)月低點(diǎn)附近，有望錄得歷史第二大單月跌幅，這是因?yàn)楸局軜O寒天氣導(dǎo)致天然氣產(chǎn)量下降，抵消了天氣變暖和下周取暖需求低于此前預(yù)期的預(yù)期。

美國(guó)天然氣價(jià)格已持續(xù)低迷數(shù)周，原因是越來(lái)越多的人相信，美國(guó)的天然氣儲(chǔ)備足以滿足冬季剩余時(shí)間的需求，同時(shí)人們預(yù)計(jì)，自由港液化天然氣公司位于得克薩斯州的液化天然氣出口工廠仍需數(shù)周時(shí)間才能大量進(jìn)口天然氣來(lái)生產(chǎn)液化天然氣。

在過去一周左右的時(shí)間里，由于寒冷的天氣和冬季風(fēng)暴凍結(jié)了包括得克薩斯州、俄克拉荷馬州、科羅拉多州、北達(dá)科他州和賓夕法尼亞州在內(nèi)的幾個(gè)州的石油和天然氣井(在能源行業(yè)被稱為凍結(jié))，天然氣日產(chǎn)量下降大約34億立方英尺，下降到958億立方英尺/天的一個(gè)月低點(diǎn)。

根據(jù)Refinitiv和聯(lián)邦政府公布的數(shù)據(jù)，盡管本周天氣極度寒冷，但到目前為止，美國(guó)大陸1月份的平均氣溫約為42.2華氏度(5.7攝氏度)，1月份有望成為美國(guó)自2006年以來(lái)最熱的1個(gè)月，當(dāng)時(shí)平均氣溫達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的42.8華氏度。

美國(guó)東部時(shí)間1月31日上午10時(shí)04分，3月份交貨的即月天然氣期貨價(jià)格維持在每百萬(wàn)英熱單位2.674美元不變。1月30日，這個(gè)價(jià)格收于2021年4月以來(lái)的最低價(jià)格。這使得該合約處于超賣區(qū)域，相對(duì)強(qiáng)弱指數(shù)(RSI)連續(xù)第二天低于30，也是今年第15次。

氣象學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)，在2月4日之前，美國(guó)大陸的大部分地區(qū)的氣溫都將低于正常水平，然后從2月5日到至少2月15日，氣溫將高于正常水平。

隨著天氣變暖，Refinitiv預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)天然氣需求(包括出口)將從本周的1345億立方英尺/天降至下周的1288億立方英尺/天。本周的預(yù)測(cè)高于Refinitiv周一的預(yù)測(cè)，而下周的預(yù)測(cè)則較低。

李峻 編譯自 世界能源新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Natgas Demand, Price Nosedive Continues

U.S. natural gas futures held near a 21-month low on Tuesday, keeping the contract on track for its second-biggest monthly drop in history, as a decline in output from this week's extreme cold offset forecasts for warmer weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected.

Gas prices have been depressed for weeks due to a growing belief that the country has more than enough gas in storage for the rest of the winter and expectations that Freeport LNG's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas is still weeks away from pulling in big amounts of gas to produce LNG.

Output was on track to drop about 3.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) over the past week or so to a preliminary one-month low of 95.8 bcfd as cold weather and winter storms froze oil and gas wells - known as freeze-offs in the energy industry - in several states, including Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.

Despite this week's extreme cold, temperatures in the U.S. Lower 48 states have averaged about 42.2 degrees Fahrenheit (5.7 Celsius) so far in January, putting this month on track to be the warmest January since 2006 when the mercury averaged a record 42.8 F, according to data from Refinitiv and the federal government.

Front-month gas futures for March delivery remained unchanged at $2.674 per million British thermal units at 10:04 a.m. EST. On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest level since April 2021.

That kept the contract in oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a second day in a row and the 15th time this year.

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across much of the lower 48 U.S. states would remain mostly colder than normal through Feb. 4 before turning warmer than normal from Feb. 5 through at least Feb. 15.

With milder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 134.5 bcfd this week to 128.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday, while its forecast for next week was lower.