?今年10月，美國原油價格曾觸及每桶86.40美元的高位

?天然氣價格今年也出現(xiàn)上漲，但與歐洲價格趨勢相比，美國基準(zhǔn)價格的漲幅微不足道

?如果當(dāng)前趨勢繼續(xù)下去，2022年能源價格可能會更高

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年12月27日消息，今年10月，美國原油價格曾觸及每桶86.40美元的高點(diǎn)。導(dǎo)致這一峰值的趨勢也推高了所有其他能源的價格，這被證明是化石燃料和通貨膨脹真正瘋狂的一年。

西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油今年開局溫和，略高于每桶50美元。在經(jīng)歷了毀滅性的 2020 年之后，原油價格在 2020 年第三季度才剛剛開始復(fù)蘇，當(dāng)時封鎖和旅行限制對石油需求造成了嚴(yán)重破壞，這促使人們預(yù)測油價永遠(yuǎn)不會恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平。

這些預(yù)測可能在價格開始回升時造成了一些沖擊:復(fù)蘇速度快于預(yù)期，隨著封鎖結(jié)束和大規(guī)模疫苗接種期間旅行恢復(fù)，復(fù)蘇也比預(yù)期強(qiáng)勁得多。

當(dāng)然，原油價格也引發(fā)了汽油價格的上漲，以至于美國為了降低美國司機(jī)的汽油價格，不得不懇求歐佩克增加石油產(chǎn)量。

懇求并沒有對石油卡特爾歐佩克產(chǎn)生影響，盡管它確實(shí)對美國石油行業(yè)產(chǎn)生了影響。美國石油行業(yè)的立場更加堅定，當(dāng)美國政府最終在汽油價格問題上尋求它的幫助時，它拒絕與美國政府合作。

美國加州11月汽油價格創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄，11月15日該州汽油均價為每加侖4.68美元。在美國，平均汽油價格達(dá)到了每加侖3.40美元的峰值。自去年11月以來，隨著新冠病毒的最新變種奧密克戎在全球蔓延，人們對限制措施的擔(dān)憂再次加劇，價格已有所回落。

美國計劃從戰(zhàn)略石油儲備(SPR)中釋放原油，這也在汽油價格波動中發(fā)揮了作用，盡管這是一個有限的波動。專家們很快指出，SPR釋放的原油不屬于墨西哥灣沿岸煉油廠配置的原油等級，因此它不能直接促進(jìn)汽油產(chǎn)量的提高。

隨著石油和天然氣價格的上漲，今年美國基準(zhǔn)價格的上漲與歐洲天然氣價格趨勢相比微不足道。在歐洲，由于庫存水平較低、需求增加和市場投機(jī)，天然氣價格一直在打破紀(jì)錄。

在美國，由于國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量充足，天然氣價格的上漲幅度要小得多。美國能源情報署(EIA)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，LNG出口也已升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位，預(yù)計美國明年將成為全球最大的LNG出口國。這種繁榮將在很大程度上得益于亞洲買家的長期承諾。

現(xiàn)在，到年底時，石油和天然氣價格都低于2021年早些時候達(dá)到的峰值，但仍高于年初的水平。由于需求復(fù)蘇，原油價格漲幅遠(yuǎn)高于天然氣，這也是推動通脹達(dá)到近40年來最高水平的因素之一。

起初，美聯(lián)儲認(rèn)為通脹趨勢是暫時的，但后來，當(dāng)通脹趨勢明顯沒有放緩時，美聯(lián)儲改變了策略，宣布將以比最初計劃更快的速度開始縮減財政刺激計劃。

這可能意味著石油和天然氣價格在2022年將面臨進(jìn)一步的上行壓力，特別是如果當(dāng)前的化石燃料需求趨勢持續(xù)到新的一年，這比突然變化更有可能，即使奧密克戎的傳播速度比以前的變體更快。

裘寅 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

What’s In Store For Energy Prices In 2022?

U.S. crude oil prices hit a high of $86.40 per barrel in October this year

Natural gas prices also rose this year, although the rise in U.S. benchmark prices was minuscule in comparison with European price trends 

2022 could see higher energy prices if current trends continue

U.S. crude oil prices hit a high of $86.40 per barrel in October this year. The trends that led to this peak also lifted all other energy prices in what turned out to be a truly wild year for fossil fuels. And for inflation.

West Texas Intermediate started the year modestly, at a little over $50 per barrel. Crude oil prices had just begun to recover in the third quarter of 2020 after a devastating 2020 when lockdowns and travel restrictions wrought havoc on oil demand, prompting forecasts that it would never recover to pre-pandemic levels.

These forecasts may have contributed to some shock when prices began to recover: the recovery was faster than expected and also much stronger than expected as lockdowns ended and travel resumed amid mass vaccinations.

Naturally, crude oil prices also caused a jump in gasoline prices, to such an extent that President Joe Biden was forced to plead with OPEC to increase oil production in order to lower prices at the pump for American drivers.

Pleading did not have an effect on the oil cartel, although it did have an effect on the U.S. oil industry, which dug its heels even deeper and refused to cooperate with the administration when it finally approached it for help in the gasoline prices effort.

U.S. gasoline prices hit a record in California in November, when the average for the state on November 15 stood at $4.68 per gallon. Across the states, the average gasoline price peaked at over $3.40 per gallon. Since November, prices have mellowed amid renewed concern about restrictions as the latest variant of the coronavirus, omicron, spreads across the world.

A plan by the Administration to release crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve also played a part in gasoline price movements even though it was a limited one. Experts were quick to note that the crude released from the SPR is not of the grades that Gulf Coast refineries are configured for, so it could not directly contribute to a boost in gasoline production.

In tune with oil natural gas prices also rose this year, although the rise in United States benchmark prices was minuscule in comparison with European price trends in natural gas. In Europe, prices have been breaking records on low inventory levels, higher demand and market speculation.

In the United States, gas prices have risen a lot more modestly thanks to ample domestic production. Exports have also risen to record highs with the U.S. projected to become the world’s largest LNG exporter next year, according to the Energy Information Administration. The boom will come in large part thanks to long-term commitments from the buyers after years of reluctance to commit to U.S. supplies.

Now, at the end of the year, both oil and gas are off their peaks reached earlier in 2021 but still higher than where they started the year. In crude oil, the increase was a lot more marked than it was for gas thanks to resurgent demand and it was one of the drivers of inflation that reached the highest in close to 40 years.

The inflation trend was first brushed off as transitory by the Fed but later, when it became clear it was not softening, the Fed changed tack and announced it would begin tapering its fiscal stimulus program faster than initially planned.

What this could mean for oil and gas prices is further upside pressure in 2022, especially if current trends in demand for fossil fuels continue into the new year, which is quite more likely than a sudden change, even with omicron spreading faster than previous variants.

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