? 在水力壓裂革命讓美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油氣行業(yè)現(xiàn)金流枯竭、負(fù)債累累之后，華爾街加大了對(duì)油氣行業(yè)的壓力，要求它們削減債務(wù)并提高股東價(jià)值  

? 在2021年油價(jià)上漲期間，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)表現(xiàn)出了令人難以置信的克制  

? 新井的投資比2014年的峰值下降了60%，這可能會(huì)在2022年推高油價(jià)  

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，長(zhǎng)期飽受失控性通貨膨脹之苦的美國(guó)人終于得到了喘息的機(jī)會(huì)。 美國(guó)汽車(chē)協(xié)會(huì)(AAA)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在持續(xù)攀升之后，美國(guó)汽油價(jià)格一直在下降，全國(guó)平均汽油價(jià)格跌至每加侖3.28美元，為10周以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)，然而專(zhuān)家們認(rèn)為這只是一付創(chuàng)可貼。 雖然很多人把油價(jià)高企歸咎于政府，但真正的罪魁禍?zhǔn)资侨A爾街，而不是賓夕法尼亞大道。

美國(guó)如今的高油價(jià)的根源可以追溯到石油公司的財(cái)務(wù)壓力，10年來(lái)災(zāi)難性的虧損和糟糕的股東回報(bào)迫使石油公司大幅改變商業(yè)模式。 多年來(lái)，在水力壓裂革命導(dǎo)致美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)現(xiàn)金流失、負(fù)債累累之后，華爾街一直在向油氣公司施壓，要求它們削減資本支出，并將現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移到提高股息和回購(gòu)股票、償還債務(wù)以及脫碳等財(cái)務(wù)目標(biāo)上。 

因此，新井的投資自2014年峰值以來(lái)暴跌了60%，導(dǎo)致美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量在新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)之際暴跌了300多萬(wàn)桶，跌幅近25%，之后原油產(chǎn)量未能隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇而復(fù)蘇。  

沒(méi)有新的鉆井活動(dòng)

由于華爾街緊盯不放，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)實(shí)際上空運(yùn)行：美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）的最新鉆井生產(chǎn)力報(bào)告顯示，美國(guó)在2021年7月有5957口已開(kāi)鉆但未完鉆（DUCs）井，這是2017年11月以來(lái)任何月份美國(guó)DUC數(shù)最少的一個(gè)月。美國(guó)DUC數(shù)在2019年曾達(dá)到8900口。 按照這個(gè)減少速度，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商將不得不大幅增加新井的鉆井量，才能維持目前的原油產(chǎn)量。  

EIA表示，美國(guó)大多數(shù)主要陸上產(chǎn)油區(qū)的DUC數(shù)急劇下降，反映出完井?dāng)?shù)量增加，同時(shí)新鉆井活動(dòng)減少，這證明頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商一直在堅(jiān)持減少鉆井作業(yè)的承諾。 盡管更多井的完井提高了原油產(chǎn)量，特別是在二疊系盆地的原油產(chǎn)量，但完井也大幅降低了DUC庫(kù)存，這可能會(huì)極大地限制美國(guó)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的原油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)。  

投產(chǎn)水平井、水力壓裂井的兩個(gè)主要階段是鉆井和完井階段。 鉆井階段包括派遣鉆機(jī)和鉆井隊(duì)，然后鉆井工人在一個(gè)鉆井平臺(tái)上鉆一口或多口井。 下一個(gè)階段，即完井階段，通常由不同的鉆井隊(duì)工人完成，包括下套管、固井、射孔和水力壓裂生產(chǎn)。 一般來(lái)說(shuō)，鉆井和完井之間的時(shí)間間隔是幾個(gè)月，這導(dǎo)致了大量的DUC庫(kù)存，生產(chǎn)商可以將其作為工作庫(kù)存來(lái)管理石油生產(chǎn)。 

根據(jù)標(biāo)普資本智商公司公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，2004年至2014年，美國(guó)27家主要石油生產(chǎn)商的資本支出增加了兩倍，達(dá)到了2940億美元，然后在2020年削減至1110億美元。 一旦老井被封頂，新井就無(wú)法迅速填補(bǔ)生產(chǎn)缺口。 問(wèn)題是上市石油公司的這種限制不知道會(huì)持續(xù)多久。 預(yù)計(jì)2022年資本支出將達(dá)到1350億美元左右，同比增長(zhǎng)21.6%，但仍不及2014年投資水平的一半。

股東回報(bào)  

除了嚴(yán)格限制新的鉆井活動(dòng)以外，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖公司也一直在兌現(xiàn)其承諾，以股息和股票回購(gòu)的形式向股東返還更多現(xiàn)金。

美國(guó)進(jìn)步倡導(dǎo)團(tuán)體網(wǎng)站Accountable.US最近刊登的一份報(bào)告說(shuō)，美國(guó)24家大型能源公司中有16家2021年提高了股息，11家公司支付了總計(jì)超過(guò)365億美元的特別股息。考慮到美國(guó)油氣行業(yè)2021年公布的利潤(rùn)為1740億美元，這是一個(gè)相當(dāng)可觀的派息率。 事實(shí)上，“可變股息”可以讓油氣公司在形勢(shì)好的時(shí)候提高股息，在形勢(shì)不好的時(shí)候降低股息，這已經(jīng)成為油氣公司最喜歡的派息工具。 

與此同時(shí)，盡管埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龍公司已承諾在未來(lái)兩年內(nèi)回購(gòu)多達(dá)200億美元的股票，但油氣公司已在股票回購(gòu)上花費(fèi)了80億美元。2021年，能源行業(yè)的股票上漲強(qiáng)勁，這可以解釋為什么投資者不愿在股票回購(gòu)上花太多錢(qián)。

然而，油價(jià)在未來(lái)一年可能保持高位的最重要原因是歐佩克的紀(jì)律: 石油價(jià)格信息服務(wù)公司總裁湯姆· 克洛薩日前在接受美國(guó)全國(guó)廣播公司財(cái)經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)采訪時(shí)風(fēng)趣地表示：“這個(gè)卡特爾傳統(tǒng)上就像美國(guó)男星查理·辛的酗酒行為一樣有紀(jì)律，但到2020年，這個(gè)卡特爾就變得像奧運(yùn)體操運(yùn)動(dòng)員一樣有紀(jì)律。”

石油短缺  

根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署的數(shù)據(jù)，2022年全球原油日消費(fèi)量預(yù)計(jì)將從2021年的9620萬(wàn)桶提高到9953萬(wàn)桶，僅略低于2019年的9955萬(wàn)桶。 當(dāng)然，這將取決于世界能否迅速控制新冠病毒的奧密克戎變種。

更高的原油需求將給歐佩克和美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)帶來(lái)滿足需求的壓力。 但我們不要忘記，許多歐佩克國(guó)家已經(jīng)在努力增加產(chǎn)量，而美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)必須應(yīng)對(duì)投資者的需求，以維持支出。 到目前為止，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)并未像以往那樣對(duì)油價(jià)上漲做出反應(yīng)，2021年美國(guó)的平均原油日產(chǎn)量為1120萬(wàn)桶，而2019年末的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄日產(chǎn)量為近1300萬(wàn)桶。挪威著名能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司（ Rystad Energy）的分析高級(jí)副總裁Claudio Galimberti表示，到2022年，美國(guó)的原油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)只增加70萬(wàn)桶，至1190萬(wàn)桶。  

加拿大、挪威、圭亞那和巴西可能試圖彌補(bǔ)全球石油供需缺口，但一些華爾街投資者認(rèn)為，這還不夠，油價(jià)將繼續(xù)走高。 

事實(shí)上，巴克萊銀行預(yù)測(cè)，2022年美國(guó)WTI原油合同價(jià)格將從目前的每桶73美元漲至77美元，并指出政府出售戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備的原油并不是一個(gè)可持續(xù)的降低油價(jià)的方法。 巴克萊銀行表示，如果疫情影響降至最低，從而使需求增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)預(yù)期，原油價(jià)格可能會(huì)高于預(yù)期。 

高盛投資銀行認(rèn)同這一樂(lè)觀展望，并預(yù)測(cè)到2023年前布倫特原油價(jià)格將達(dá)到每桶85美元，而布倫特原油價(jià)格目前為每桶76.30美元。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Chronic Underinvestment Could Push Oil Prices Higher In 2022

·     After the fracking revolution left the U.S. shale patch bleeding cash and deeply indebted. Wall Street ramped up pressure on companies to cut debt and boost shareholder value.

·     The U.S. shale industry has exercised incredible restraint during this year’s oil price rally.

·     Consequently, investment in new wells has crashed 60% since its peak in 2014, which could send oil prices higher in 2022.

Long-suffering Americans grappling with runaway inflation are finally enjoying some reprieve. After a relentless climb, prices at the pump have been heading south, with national average gas prices tumbling to a 10-week low of $3.28 a gallon, according to AAA. Fuel prices started leveling out after U.S.announced on November 23 the biggest-ever release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, though experts have dismissed it as a mere band-aid. Whereas many people have placed the blame for high gas prices on the Biden administration, the real culprit has more to do with Wall Street than Pennsylvania Avenue.

The genesis of today's high gas prices can be traced back to financial pressure on oil companies from a decade of devastating losses and poor shareholder returns that have forced them to dramatically alter their business models. For years, Wall Street has pressured oil and gas companies to cut capex, and shift their cash to financial goals like boosting dividends and buybacks, paying down debt, as well as decarbonization, after the fracking revolution left the U.S. shale patch bleeding cash and deeply indebted.

Consequently, investment in new wells has crashed 60% since its peak in 2014, causing U.S. crude oil production to plummet by more than 3 million barrels a day, or nearly 25%, just as the Covid virus hit, and then failed to recover with the economy. 

No drilling

With Wall Street breathing down its neck, U.S. shale is literally running on empty: according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest Drilling Productivity Report, the United States had 5,957 drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in July 2021, the lowest for any month since November 2017 from nearly 8,900 at its 2019 peak. At this rate, shale producers will have to sharply ramp up the drilling of new wells just to maintain the current production clip.

The EIA says the sharp decline in DUCs in most major U.S. onshore oil-producing regions reflects more well completions and, at the same time, less new well drilling activity--proof that shale producers have been sticking to their pledge to drill less. Whereas the higher completion rate of more wells has been increasing oil production, especially in the Permian region, the completions have sharply lowered DUC inventories, which could sharply limit oil production growth in the United States in the coming months.

The two main stages in bringing a horizontally drilled, hydraulically fractured well online are drilling and completion. The drilling phase involves dispatching a drilling rig and crew, who then drill one or more wells on a pad site. The next phase, well completion, is typically performed by a separate crew and involves casing, cementing, perforating, and hydraulically fracturing the well for production. In general, the time between the drilling and completion stages is several months, leading to a significant inventory of DUCs that producers can maintain as working inventory to manage oil production.

According to S&P Capital IQ data, 27 major oil makers tripled capital spending between 2004 and 2014 to $294 billion and then cut it to $111 billion by last year. once old wells were capped, new ones haven't been available to fill the production gap quickly. The question is how long the restraint by publicly traded oil companies will last. Capital spending is expected to clock in around $135 billion next year, good for a 21.6% Y/Y jump but still less than half 2014's level.

Shareholder returns

Other than severely limiting new drilling activity, U.S. shale has also been keeping its pledge to return more cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

A recent report by progressive advocacy group Accountable.us says that 16 of 24 large U.S. energy companies have raised their dividends this year, while 11 made special dividend payouts totaling more than $36.5 billion. That's a pretty impressive payout ratio considering that the sector has so far reported $174 billion in profits this year. Indeed, "variable dividends" that allow companies to hike dividends when times are good and to lower them when the going gets tough has become a favorite tool for oil and gas companies.

Meanwhile, oil and gas companies have spent a more modest $8 billion in share buybacks, though ExxonMobil ((NYSE:XOM)and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have pledged to buy back as much as $20 billion of stock in the next two years. The energy sector has made robust share gains in the current year, which could explain the reluctance to spend too much on share repurchases.

The most important reason, however, why oil prices are likely to remain high in the coming year is OPEC discipline:

"You have a cartel that is traditionally as disciplined as Charlie Sheen's drinking, and for the last year, they've been as disciplined as Olympic gymnasts," Tom Kloza, president of Oil Price Information Service, has hilariously told CNBC.

Oil shortage

According to the IEA, crude consumption is expected to improve to 99.53 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 96.2 million bpd this year, leaving it just a hair short of 2019's daily consumption of 99.55 million barrels. That will, of course, depend on the world bringing the new Omicron variant of Covid-19 quickly under control.

Higher oil demand will put pressure on both OPEC and the U.S. shale industry to meet demand. But let's not forget that numerous OPEC nations have already been struggling to add to output, while the U.S. shale industry has to deal with investor demands to hold the line on spending. So far, the U.S. shale industry has not responded to higher oil prices as they had done previously, with overall U.S. production averaged 11.2 million bpd in 2021 compared with a record of nearly 13 million bpd in late 2019. U.S. production is expected to only increase by 700,000 b/d in 2022 to 11.9 b/d, according to Rystad Energy's senior vice-president of analysis, Claudio Galimberti. 

Canada, Norway, Guyana, and Brazil could try to bridge the supply-demand gap, but several Wall Street punters are betting it will not be enough and oil prices will remain elevated.

In fact, Barclays has predicted that the WTI contract price will increase from the current rate of $73 to an average price of $77 in 2022, noting that the administration's sale of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve isn't a sustainable way to bring down prices. Barclays says prices could go even higher than that forecast if COVID-19 outbreaks are minimized and thus allow demand to grow more than expected. 

Goldman Sachs shares that bullish outlook and has predicted a Brent price of $85 per barrel by 2023 compared to the current $76.30.

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