據(jù)彭博社1月4日報道，市場預(yù)計歐佩克(OPEC)將同意在2月再次增產(chǎn)，油價出現(xiàn)波動。

紐約期貨市場在每桶76美元上下波動。代表們表示，歐佩克+將在周二會議上批準(zhǔn)2月份每日增產(chǎn)40萬桶的計劃。盡管有人擔(dān)心，疫情爆發(fā)可能會削弱需求。

歐佩克+總體供需形勢看起來有所好轉(zhuǎn)，由于競爭對手產(chǎn)量增長放緩，該組織下調(diào)了對第一季度盈余預(yù)期。最近幾周，石油生產(chǎn)國出現(xiàn)了一連串供應(yīng)問題。

石油市場結(jié)構(gòu)仍處于看漲的現(xiàn)貨溢價狀態(tài)，這表明供應(yīng)繼續(xù)緊張。投資者也在回歸，基金經(jīng)理上周加大了對布倫特原油看漲押注，幅度為7月以來最高水平。

荷蘭銀行(ABN Amro)高級能源經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家漢斯?范?克里夫(Hans van Cleef)表示，“我不認(rèn)為歐佩克+會帶來太多驚喜，隨著越來越多的生產(chǎn)商開始陷入困境，最大的挑戰(zhàn)開始是實際實現(xiàn)理論上的產(chǎn)量上升”。

價格方面

倫敦時間上午10:02，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油上漲0.5%，至每桶76.46美元。布倫特原油3月份結(jié)算價也上漲0.5%，至每桶79.34美元

根據(jù)彭博社報告顯示，代表部長們分析市場的歐佩克+聯(lián)合技術(shù)委員會(OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee)預(yù)計，2022年前三個月將出現(xiàn)每天140萬桶的盈余，比一個月前的預(yù)期減少了約25%。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Oil fluctuates near US$76 ahead of OPEC+ meeting on supply policy

Oil fluctuated before an OPEC+ meeting that’s expected to see the alliance agree to another output boost next month.

Futures in New York swung between gains and losses near US$76 a barrel. OPEC+ is set to ratify a 400,000-barrel-a-day increase for February when it gathers on Tuesday, delegates said. That’s despite concerns that demand could be weakened by virus flare-ups, including in China, the biggest oil importer.

The overall supply-demand backdrop is looking better for OPEC+, with the cartel cutting estimates for a surplus in the first quarter amid slower output growth from its rivals. Recent weeks have seen a litany of supply issues in producing. 

Oil’s market structure remains in a bullish backwardation pattern, which indicates continued tightness of supply. Speculators have also been returning, with money managers last week boosting bullish bets on Brent by the most since July. 

“I don’t expect much surprise” from OPEC+, said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro. “The biggest challenge is starting to be to actually implement the theoretical rise in production as more and more producers start to struggle.”

Prices

West Texas Intermediate rose 0.5 per cent to US$76.46 a barrel at 10:02 a.m. London time

Brent for March settlement also gained 0.5 per cent to trade at US$79.34

The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee, which analyzes the market on behalf of ministers, sees a surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in the first three months of 2022, about 25 per cent less than it estimated a month ago, according to a report seen by Bloomberg.

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